College hockey bubble watch: Gophers (outside), UMD (inside), St. Cloud State (very safe)

St. Cloud State might be the only Minnesota hockey program playing in this year's NCAA tournament field. The Gophers and Minnesota Duluth are on the bubble entering the final week of conference tournaments. Minnesota State will have to win the WCHA Final Five to extend its season.

The Huskies are ranked No. 4 in the USCHO top 20, but more importantly rated No. 3 in the Pairwise rankings. USCHO's Pairwise rankings are a statistical comparison that mimics how the NCAA selection committee fills out its field after six teams get automatic bids by winning conference tournaments.

Minnesota State is No. 15, Duluth No. 16 and the Gophers No. 20 in the most recent USCHO top 20 poll, but their Pairwise status tells a different story.

St. Cloud State

The Huskies are one victory shy of a 30-win season and are a shoo-in for the NCAA tournament ranked No. 3 in the Pairwise. They finished second in the NCHC standings behind North Dakota, the nation's top-ranked team, and won the North Star College Cup earlier this season with wins over Minnesota State and Bemidji State.

St. Cloud State has won its last four games and is 15-4-1 since the start of the calendar year. They face Denver in Friday night's NCHC Frozen Faceoff semifinal at Target Center.
Minnesota

The Gophers won the Big Ten regular-season championship last weekend, but likely lost any chance at claiming an at-large berth into the NCAA tournament. Wisconsin shut the small window of opportunity by beating the Gophers 4-3 in dramatic fashion on Friday night.

The Gophers entered the final regular-season series on the Pairwise bubble ranked No. 17. They fell to No. 19 after Friday's loss and resurfaced tied for 17th after Saturday's 4-1 victory to claim a third straight Big Ten title.

The damage had already been done, though. Lucia reiterated Monday morning on KFAN that winning the Big Ten tournament is likely the only way his team makes the NCAA tournament.

"Losing a couple games here at the end hurt us," Lucia said on Paul Allen's radio show. "Probably the most costly games were earlier in the year. We put ourselves in position where it's survive and advance.

"If we don't win on Fright night, pack your bag the season is over. Our NCAA tournament starts a week earlier [than most]."

The Gophers are the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament and will play the winner of Thursday's quarterfinal featuring No. 4 seed Ohio State and No. 5 Michigan State.
Minnesota Duluth

Duluth will face No. 1 North Dakota in Friday afternoon's NCHC Frozen Faceoff at Target Center. However, even if the Bulldogs lose, they'll still get a chance for a victory in the third-place consolation game.

The Bulldogs lost to North Dakota four times this season, were 2-1-1 against St. Cloud State and 0-3-1 against Denver.
Minnesota State

The Mavericks were the No. 1 overall seed in last year's NCAA tournament, but will need to win the WCHA Final Five to make the field this season. Though they're ranked No. 15 in the USCHO top 20 ahead of the Bulldogs and Gophers, they have a lower Pairwise rating at No. 24.

They face Bowling Green in Friday's WCHA semifinals and then would have to beat the winner of Michigan Tech and Ferris State in the championship game. Michigan Tech is also on the bubble and could earn an at-large bid with just one victory this weekend.
Bemidji state