Latte lovers, beware. The beans used to make the caffeinated delight are suffering through a terrible drought in Brazil.
In the state of Espirito Santo, the land is so parched that the government has restricted water used to irrigate farms for months. As waterways dried further, the regulations grew more strict in August, and in some areas farmers are prohibited from pumping any water from rivers to their fields.
The region is Brazil's top grower of robusta beans — the variety used in espresso and instant coffee.
Moyses Alvino Covre, a fourth-generation farmer who has planted 6,178 acres of robusta across eight farms in the northern part of the state, said at half the fields, water pumps are locked by the government, which means he can't irrigate his fields at all. At the other half, he's allowed to irrigate at night, but there is little relief.
"It's not helping much, because the rivers are dry," the 57-year-old Covre said, adding that there's barely enough for drinking. "There's no water, no rain, and these plants are not growing."
Brazil's robusta harvest will probably tumble 16 percent this year to 9.4 million metric tons, the smallest since 2006, according to the nation's crop agency Conab. Shrinking output has fueled a 21 percent rally for futures traded in London, and Societe Generale predicts that prices could climb 30 percent further by the end of next year.
Adding to the supply tightness, trees are withering just as total global coffee consumption is forecast by the U.S. government to reach an all-time high.
The prolonged drought means yields and production will probably fall next year, too. Coffee trees are in the beginning of the flowering season, when moisture is desperately needed. "Even if it started raining now, it's unlikely we would have a good harvest next year," said Romario Gava Ferrao, a researcher at the Incaper Institute in Espirito Santo.
