![Minnesota Golden Gophers forward Nathan Burke (21) tried to score on Notre Dame Fighting Irish goaltender Cale Morris (32) in the third period. ] ANTHONY SOUFFLE • anthony.souffle@startribune.com](https://arc.stimg.co/startribunemedia/T6VKSDKYWNBRX3DGABDNLIRT34.jpg?&w=1080)
Remember that second-half run the Gophers men's hockey team made to thrust itself back into the Big Ten race and NCAA tournament conversation?
Well, that's over now, and Minnesota's 0-2-2 finish against Penn State and Michigan in the Big Ten regular season means it has work to do in the conference tournament to end a two-year NCAA tournament drought.
Saturday's 2-1 loss to Michigan not only prevented the Gophers from clinching a share of the Big Ten title and No. 2 seed behind Penn State in the league tournament, it also dropped them to the No. 4 seed and delivered a solid blow to their status in the PairWise Ratings, the mathematical formula the NCAA uses to select and seed its 16-team tournament field.
After their 2-2 tie with Michigan on Friday, the Gophers moved up one spot to No. 13 in the PairWise, on the bubble for the NCAA field. After the loss on Saturday, however, Minnesota fell to No. 16, which is outside the NCAA field because one spot will go to the Atlantic Hockey tournament champion, a team that will be outside of the PairWise top 16 and bump the team in the No. 16 spot. The Gophers actually had fallen to No. 19 immediately after their Saturday game finished but moved up when later results helped their standing.
College Hockey News' PairWise Probability Matrix, which runs 20,000 weighted simulations of the remaining games and potential conference tournament matchups, gives the Gophers a 26 percent chance to make the NCAA field, which is down from 39 percent last week. Minnesota's best way to make the field would be winning the Big Ten tournament and its automatic NCAA bid, though a run to the conference final might get it done. Put simply, the Gophers need a few more wins, and a sweep of Notre Dame in the best-of-three Big Ten quarterfinals at 3M Arena at Mariucci this weekend would be a good start.
As for the other four Division I men's teams in Minnesota, Bemidji State helped itself last weekend by splitting a series against Minnesota State. Though the Beavers didn't get the sweep that would have delivered the MacNaughton Cup to the shores of Lake Bemidji, they did help themselves in the PairWise. They moved up a spot to No. 10 and have an 86 percent chance of making the NCAA field, per the PairWise matrix. They open WCHA tournament play at home against Lake Superior State.
Minnesota State, No. 3 in the PairWise, is a lock to make the NCAA field and has a 99 percent chance of being one of the four No. 1 regional seeds. Minnesota Duluth, at No. 5, is a lock to make the NCAA field and could move up to a No. 1 seed with a strong showing in the NCHC tournament, which begins March 13. St. Cloud State, No. 22 in the PairWise, would help itself immensely with a sweep at UMD this weekend, but winning the NCHC tournament might be the Huskies' only route to the NCAA field.
With those scenarios in mind, here is this week's Bracketology, a snapshot of what the NCAA tournament might look like if the season ended today. For consistency's sake, four conference regular-season champions – Penn State (Big Ten), Cornell (ECAC), Minnesota State (WCHA) and American International (Atlantic Hockey) – plus conference leaders North Dakota (NCHC) and Boston College (Hockey East) who finish league play this weekend are projected to win their conference tournaments and automatic NCAA bid.
