It’s hard to know what to make of betting markets — particularly when it comes to “prop bets” that involve outcomes not directly tied to the field of play.
But I did find some odds released by Bovada to be interesting, at least, when it comes to the Twins and their possible continued pursuit of more starting pitching.
The site offers a few prop bets on which teams the top remaining free agent pitchers are most likely to wind up signing with this season.
The Twins are given the best odds of signing both Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb.
They’re listed as 5 to 4 favorites to get Cobb, while the next closest teams are all listed at 4 to 1. That’s a pretty significant tilt toward the Twins when it comes to landing Cobb — who like new Twins starter Jake Odorizzi and first baseman/DH Logan Morrison played for Tampa Bay last season. Cobb, who had Tommy John surgery in 2015, went 12-10 with the Rays with a 3.66 ERA last season.
As for Lynn, who missed all of 2016 after having Tommy John surgery, the Twins are listed as 9 to 5 favorites. The Phillies are next at 10 to 3. Lynn’s peripheral numbers were down last season from where they were pre-surgery, but he still posted a 3.43 ERA in 33 starts for the Cardinals last year and could be even better in year two post-surgery.
Those odds guarantee nothing, of course, but they are at least reflective of how Bovada quantifies the various reports out there. Maybe they even know something the rest of us don’t know?
You can still bet on the Twins to sign Jake Arrieta, by the way, but they’re 8 to 1 long shots behind four other teams.
One thing is for sure: All three of those pitchers are probably itching to lock down deals soon with the regular season just a few weeks away.