Bet on 'Breaking Bad' to win big at Emmys

Anyone who plans to wager heavily on Sunday's Emmy Awards based on my predictions, be advised: Don't put up more than 75 cents.

Emmy winners are always difficult to predict, but this year is particularly tough given the number of innovative comedies, the deep bench of quality dramas and the introduction of a new player called Netflix. Here are my best guesses:

Nominees: "The Big Bang Theory," "Girls," "Louie," "Modern Family," "30 Rock," "Veep."

Will win: "Family" makes it four in a row.

Should win: "Family" is television's finest traditional sitcom, but with "Louie," writer/director/star Louis C.K. broke the mold and then reshaped it into art.

Nominees: Laura Dern, "Enlightened"; Lena Dunham, "Girls"; Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"; Amy Poehler, "Parks & Recreation"; Tina Fey, "30 Rock"; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep."

Will win: Louis-Dreyfus owns this category.

Nominees: "Breaking Bad," "Downton Abbey," "Game of Thrones," "Homeland," "House of Cards," "Mad Men."

Will and should win: The buzz on "Bad" is so loud, it's almost drowning out the sound of Walter White's last rant.

Nominees: Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"; Hugh Bonne­ville, "Downton Abbey"; Damian Lewis, "Homeland"; Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards"; Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"; Jeff Daniels, "The Newsroom."

Will and should win: Spacey offers movie-star gravitas in Netflix's breakthrough series, but Cranston has embodied one of the great TV characters of all time.

Nominees: Claire Danes, "Homeland"; Vera Farmiga, "Bates Motel"; Robin Wright, "House of Cards"; Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"; Connie Britton, "Nashville"; Kerry Washington, "Scandal"; Michelle Dockery, "Downton Abbey."

Should win: I'd love to see Washington break some barriers with a victory, but it was Farmiga who was truly the most scandalous.

Nominees: "American Horror Story: Asylum," "Behind the Candelabra," "The Bible," "Phil Spector," "Political Animals," "Top of the Lake."

Will and should win: Michael Douglas + Matt Damon x Steven Soderbergh = a victory party for "Candelabra."