
As the Twins have sprinted to a 23-12 start and the best record in baseball, fans have grown increasingly optimistic while still realizing that there is plenty of season left. If you are somewhere between "It's all going to fall apart" and "The only question left is planning the World Series parade route," you are probably not alone.
To try to get a handle on how optimistic you should be, I took a look at some data about teams who have gotten off to similarly good starts. I went back over the last 10 season in MLB, from 2009-2018, and looked at the teams that 1) Had the best record in the majors through games of May 9 and 2) Were at least 10 games above .500 through May 9 to see how they finished up.
Long story short: Early success is a pretty good predictor of season-long success, though there are a few cautionary outliers.
*First, a list of the teams with the best records in the majors each of the last 10 season with their record through May 9 in parentheses and their finish at the end:
2018: Yankees (26-10) – Made playoffs as Wild Card, finished 100-62.
2017: Baltimore (22-10) – Missed playoffs, finished 75-87
2016: Cubs (24-6) – Won division and World Series, finished 103-58
2015: Cardinals (22-8) – Won division, finished 100-62