The excellent author Nassim Nicholas Taleb has a resonant expression in which he warns against walking across a river that is, on average, 4 feet deep.
I'll probably bungle the deepest logic behind the phrase, but the takeaway is that we shouldn't mistake averages for consistent results. Try to walk across a river that's, on average, 4 feet deep and it might be up to your ankles in some spots. In others, it might be over your head.
As a devout reader of Taleb's books and a longtime watcher of Timberwolves basketball, I'd like to try out this metaphor: Andrew Wiggins is a river that is, on average, 4 feet deep.
Every NBA player has some variance in his scoring output, but Wiggins' seems more disparate than most. Most notably this season: Wiggins had a 40-point game and a zero-point game, both in which he was seemingly the same person with the same skill set. That's a 20-point average, but a tough way to get there.
With Wiggins, though, it's not just a matter of output. It's a question of input, and it has been for a long time. Interim head coach Ryan Saunders was the latest to tackle the question of getting more from Wiggins after he had only 10 points in almost 35 minutes of a one-point loss to Denver on Saturday.
"We'd love to have more from him … than what we had tonight," Saunders said after the game. "We'll look forward to that next time."
The quote spread through Twitter, as these things do. I had a chance to ask Saunders and Wiggins more about that Monday after practice, and Saunders said he wasn't issuing a rebuke of Wiggins but was just answering a question. But the quote in and of itself speaks to Wiggins' inconsistency — and the knowledge that Wiggins could look and produce like an entirely different player Tuesday at Memphis.
It also makes Saunders the latest in a long line of coaches to address the question of getting more from Wiggins.