On Oct. 6, the recipient of the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced.
Well, probably.
There's always a chance that given the spiraling crises spanning countries and continents that there won't be an award announced.
In fact, that's happened 19 times since the first award in 1901. Most were war years, when the Norwegian Nobel Committee could see firsthand the wrenching results of failed diplomacy. But as recently as 1972, the committee found the field wanting.
Despite the growing global chaos, an award is still likely — although it seems unlikely that a head of state will win. A possible exception is Angela Merkel, but the German chancellor faces a contested election on Sept. 24, which could affect her chances to become a Nobel laureate despite her being the political (if not moral) force holding the West together.
Last year's recipient reflected the contemporary challenge of honoring a current leader.
"For his resolute efforts to bring the country's more than 50-year-long civil war to an end," Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos was lauded. But just days before the announcement, Colombians rejected a Santos-backed referendum on a peace pact between the Colombian government and the FARC, or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. (Colombian lawmakers eventually advanced a revised deal, and peace is apace in the country, prompting a papal pilgrimage this week from Pope Francis, a noble Nobel contender in his own right.)
Other leaders-turned-laureates could be considered premature, too. 2009's recipient, Barack Obama, was just months into a presidency that soon saw a surge in Afghanistan and ubiquitous use of drone warfare.