Basketball season is over, which means spring is around the bend, baseball is back, whiskey gives way to gin and beer and my back doesn't feel like its breaking as often. It also means it's time for analysis of the last season and speculation about the next. While the Gophers won't play another game for seven more months -- wow, that sounds like a long time -- there are still plenty of moving parts for those in maroon and gold.
After freshman Kevin Dorsey announced he would transfer earlier this month, the Gophers have one remaining scholarship to use and recruiting to fill that spot has already begun anew – Minnesota hosted graduate transfer Akeem Springs and 2016 center Jordy Tshimanga on campus this weekend. Many are wondering, though, if the fallout from a historically bad season that was also mired by off-court troubles is over, and more still, whether Minnesota will find a way to rebound next season. Can the Gophers take the "HUGE" jump coach Richard Pitino is predicting? Will there be more shakeup in the meantime? What beverage should you consume while dealing with all this stress? I've got the answers to all of these questions and more in this very mailbag, so read on.
What is a fair expectation for next year? Pitino himself says "HUGE" step forward. Does that mean NCAA tourney or is that 2018?
--@Gopherated
I got many versions of this question from folks, and it's a good one. Ever since last fall, we've talked about what is to be in 2016-17. Pitino's best recruiting class is teed up, a pair of promising transfers become available and a handful of talented freshmen gain head into their sophomore season wiser, stronger and savvier. That's the theory anyway. Minnesota, rebuilding this past season, was always supposed to be better next year. How much better is a matter of debate. Pitino's prognosis seemed to get sunnier and sunnier last season as the losses piled up. Now, Pitino is comparing the team to Villanova at its last lull and majorly hyping a squad he says will take a "HUGE jump" next year.
But just what does that mean?
The Gophers, with the roster as it stands, will certainly be better than they were last year; it would be hard to get much worse. But Minnesota could be better than a year ago and still fall short of what fans might call a successful season. Can the Gophers spring from the Big Ten basement to the NCAA tournament? I'm not quite ready to say yes. Transfers Reggie Lynch and Davonte Fitzgerald and freshman Eric Curry will change the look of the frontcourt, but Minnesota also desperately needs shooters, and natural scorers beyond Nate Mason and Jordan Murphy. Right now, the Gophers didn't don't have more of that in proven entities. Amir Coffey is a very talented guard with the potential to grow into an elite college player. But he's not going to come in and score 20 a game right away. Perhaps his best skill is setting up and finding teammates – but that asset is minimized if there isn't a great offense to run with. Fitzgerald and Curry can shoot but need to prove it at this level (Fitzgerald shot 31.4 percent from three-point range in his last year at Texas A&M and 28.6 his first season). Lynch will be the necessary last line of defense and could develop into a strong Big Ten player, but he has never been a great scorer. Beyond all of that, next year's Gophers will still have to find chemistry and learn to play together – with potentially three new players in the starting five, this rotation will again be a new patchwork. And Minnesota will likely still need to win a lot of close games – something Pitino still hasn't proven capable of.
Next year's team has the ability to make a big leap, but there are also enough questionmarks to keep expectations grounded.