AccuWeather.com meteorologists have done extensive research into the weatherthat may have affected the Air France Airbus A330 Sunday evening. It isbelieved that the plane flew into thunderstorms, and the updrafts or turbulenceassociated with those storms in addition to lightning may have played a role.The projected flight path of flight 447 took the aircraft near Sao Luis,Brazil, where it may have first encountered a thunderstorm. Later in theflight, the plane appears to have flown into or near a large clusterthunderstorms that were in the development stages northeast of Fernando DeNoronha, which is located off Brazil's northern coast, and along theIntertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the belt of low pressure that surroundsthe Earth at the equator.
Based on weather information from Fernando De Noronha, the updraftsassociated with the thunderstorms may have reached up to 100 mph. Such anupdraft would lead to severe turbulence for any aircraft. In addition, thestorms were towering up to 50,000 feet and would have been producing lightning.
The Air France plane would have encountered these stormy conditions, whichcould have resulted in either some structural failure or electrical failure asnoted in the communications between the airplane and Air France headquarters.
Based on satellite information, the Air France flight had little chance ofgoing around the storms given that they stretched for over 400 miles and weredeveloping along the flight path. The airplane was flying at cruising altitudeof 35,000 feet. With the updrafts pushing the storms up to 50,000 feet, theplane had to fly through the storms and not over them.
Despite the presence of the storms Sunday evening, the only lightningdetected along the flight path was near Sao Luis, Brazil. Lightning strikeswere not being detected with the storms northeast of Fernando De Noronha andalong the ITCZ at the time.
According to Brazilian aviation officials, wreckage that has been found inthe Atlantic Ocean about 400 miles off the northern coast of Brazil could befrom the Air France aircraft. The debris sighted includes metallic objects andplane seats. This wreckage still hasn't been confirmed as being part of the AirFrance jet.
Tropical thunderstorms and the lightning patterns generated by them aredifferent from storms that typically occur over the United States. Studies haveshown that the top region of tropical thunderstorms is highly charged and moreconducive to lightning, which indicates that an airplane flying near the top ofa tropical thunderstorm could be more susceptible to a lightning strike.
Tropical thunderstorms are also notorious for producing frequentcloud-to-cloud, as well as cloud-to-air lightning.
Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Heather Buchman, Kristina Pydynowskiand Henry Margusity, and AccuWeather.com News Correspondent Gina Cherundolo
