AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Joe Bastardi is concerned about near-U.S.coast formation of tropical storms and hurricanes for the Atlantic 2009season.
The forecast development of El Nino, a warm current in the tropical PacificOcean, is part of the reason for AccuWeather.com's forecast of fewer namedtropical systems compared to last year.
The heart of the concern is the expected dry air over the tropical Atlantic,as well as cooler-than-usual Caribbean Sea waters. Dry air over the middle ofthe Atlantic will tend to hinder or limit development of Cape Verde storms.
These storms, which have their roots over Africa, travel westward across theAtlantic and represent the backbone of the main season hurricanes in Caribbean,the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Seaboard. While the surface temperature ofthe Caribbean is currently warm, that layer is very shallow and can easily turncolder due to turbulence from any system passing nearby.
As a result of these issues, tropical disturbances may tend to form over theGulf of Mexico and the nearby Atlantic Coast. Waters in these areas will be thewarmest relative to normal and the tropical Atlantic as a whole.
AccuWeather.com is forecasting 10 named Atlantic storms this season,compared to a somewhat unclear 70 percent chance of 9 to 14 named stormspredicted by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
Additionally, the CPC is forecasting a 50 percent chance of a near-averageseason, a 25 percent chance of an above-average season as well as a 25 percentchance of a below-average season. No information is provided on behalf of theCPC as to where the storms may form.
By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
