The Star Tribune, MPR News, KARE 11 and FRONTLINE, the PBS series, interviewed 800 Minnesota registered voters between Sept. 13 and Sept. 15. Findings from questions about the 2020 presidential election, the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol and former President Donald Trump. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Scroll down the page for details about how the poll was conducted, a map of the Minnesota regions used in this poll and the demographics of the 800 respondents.

Do you believe that Joe Biden did or did not legitimately win the 2020 presidential election?

Yes, he did No, he did not Not sure
60% 26% 14%
Yes, he did No, he did not Not sure
Hennepin/ Ramsey 77% 15% 8%
Rest of metro 52 30 18
Southern Minn. 50 32 18
Northern Minn. 51 32 17
Men 46 34 20
Women 72 19 9
DFL/ Democrat 96 4 0
Republican 24 47 29
Independent/ other 51 31 18
18-34 69 19 12
35-49 62 25 13
50-64 54 31 15
65+ 57 26 17
No college degree 50 33 17
College graduate 69 19 12
Biden voters 93 4 3
Trump voters 25 49 26

Which one of the following best describes your view of the events that took place at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021?
   • It was an insurrection with the primary purpose of overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election
   • It was a legitimate demonstration that turned violent due to the actions of a small group of extremists

Insurrection Legitimate demonstration Not sure
46% 42% 12%
Insurrection Legitimate demonstration Not sure
Hennepin/ Ramsey 61% 30% 9%
Rest of metro 39 47 14
Southern Minn. 40 46 14
Northern Minn. 38 50 12
Men 34 53 13
Women 57 32 11
DFL/ Democrat 80 11 9
Republican 7 77 16
Independent/ other 44 45 11
18-34 58 28 13
35-49 46 43 11
50-64 39 49 12
65+ 46 42 12
No college degree 39 48 13
College graduate 54 35 11
Biden voters 78 14 8
Trump voters 13 71 16

Do you feel Donald Trump did or did not incite his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6th?

Yes, he did No, he did not Not sure
51% 41% 8%
Yes, he did No, he did not Not sure
Hennepin/ Ramsey 71% 22% 7%
Rest of metro 43 48 9
Southern Minn. 44 48 8
Northern Minn. 39 52 9
Men 35 55 10
Women 66 28 6
DFL/ Democrat 96 2 2
Republican 11 78 11
Independent/ other 38 50 12
18-34 65 27 8
35-49 53 38 9
50-64 44 48 8
65+ 49 44 7
No college degree 42 49 9
College graduate 61 32 7
Biden voters 88 7 5
Trump voters 14 75 11

About the poll

The findings of this Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11/FRONTLINE Minnesota Poll are based on live interviews conducted Sept. 13 to Sept. 15 with 800 Minnesota registered voters. The poll was conducted for the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News, KARE 11 and FRONTLINE, the PBS series, by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc.
Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county. The interviews were conducted via land line (31%) and cellphone (69%).
The margin of sampling error for this sample of 800 registered voters, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 37% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 32% independents or other.
Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion surveys, such as nonresponse, question wording or context effects. In addition, news events may have affected opinions during the period the poll was taken.
The demographic profile of this poll of likely voters is an accurate reflection of their respective voter populations. This determination is based on more than 100 statewide polls conducted by Mason-Dixon in Minnesota over the past 32 years – a period that spans eight presidential election cycles that began in 1988.
Readers can e-mail questions to matt.delong@startribune.com.
PARTY ID
DFL/Democrat 298 (37%)
Republican 244 (31%)
Independent/other 258 (32%)
AGE
18-34 147 (18%)
35-49 230 (29%)
50-64 223 (28%)
65+ 196 (24%)
Refused 4 (1%)
RACE
White/Caucasian 683 (85%)
Black/African American 44 (6%)
Hispanic/Latino 25 (3%)
Asian/Pacific Islander 14 (2%)
Other 25 (3%)
Refused 9 (1%)
GENDER ID
Men 381 (48%)
Women 416 (52%)
Other 3 (<1%)
REGION
Hennepin/Ramsey 260 (33%)
Rest of metro 215 (27%)
Southern Minnesota 155 (19%)
Northern Minnesota 170 (21%)
EDUCATION
High school or less 158 (20%)
Some college/Vocational 251 (31%)
College graduate 256 (32%)
Graduate degree 132 (17%)
Refused 3 (<1%)
2020 VOTE
Joe Biden 388 (49%)
Donald Trump 362 (45%)
Someone else 19 (2%)
Did not vote 5 (1%)
Not sure/Refused 26 (3%)
INTERVIEW
Land line 247 (31%)
Cell Phone 553 (69%)