Take a good, long look at your supernaturally green lawn, because I suspect we'll have a couple inches of slush on the ground by midweek. We may still salvage a white Christmas, by the skin of our teeth.

Any other December the upcoming storm might drop 1 to 2 feet of snow. Not this year. There's simply too much warm air.

One symptom of a warming atmosphere: more water vapor floating overhead, capable of fueling (spiking) rainstorms. One such heavy rain event is brewing tonight and Monday as a jolt of southern moisture combines with historic levels of water vapor. The local NWS estimates this may be a 1 in 30 year December rain event. Some 1-2 inch rainfall amounts give way to a burst of slush at the tail-end of the storm Monday, but this will be mainly rain. A second, colder storm Wednesday could drop a couple inches of snow, followed by a few days in the 20s by late week. But NOAA's GFS guidance hints at 40 degrees early next week and 30s on Christmas Day.

At the rate we're going this winter heavy snow and bitter cold may be the exception, not the rule. Just saying.