Checking On The Rainfall Deficit
We've seen a mixed bag of precipitation across the state since the beginning of meteorological autumn back on September 1st, with 4-5"+ for areas like St. Cloud, Duluth, International Falls, and Baudette, but less than two inches for the metro. Over half of the rain that has fallen since September 1st fell before Labor Day at MSP. Meanwhile, even with just over 5" of rain at Duluth so far this season they're still 0.18" below average.
Even with the above-average rainfall in some locations this autumn, we are still running far below average in most locations for the year due to our dry summer. Both the Twin Cities and Rochester are over a half a foot below average, with Duluth just knocking on the door of joining that club. Then you take a look at Wausau where they are over 8" above average!
Tuesday Weather Outlook
Another nice fall day is expected heading into Tuesday, though we will see both some morning and late afternoon clouds. We'll start off warmer than Monday with lows in the lower 50s, but highs will fall a couple of degrees short of our Monday warmth.
Some clouds at times will be possible across the state, but no precipitation is expected as we head throughout the day. You can see some cooler air starting to move into northwestern Minnesota where highs will be stuck in the 50s. Out across southern Minnesota highs will reach the 70s - up to 15F degrees above average.
Temperature Trend This Week
Enjoy Tuesday, as it's our last look at the 70s for a while. A system that moves on through with rain mid-week will usher down some cooler air into the state. While there's still a chance we could reach 60F for a high Wednesday, the second half of the week into the weekend will certainly see highs that are in the 50s and may struggle to make it out of the 40s at times. Longer-term, it looks like highs (at the moment) remain in the 50s and 60s through Halloween - around to several degrees above average.
At least we will get a shot at rain this week! It currently looks like a good quarter to half inch of rain will fall across the southern two-thirds of the state, with some areas potentially receiving up to an inch from late Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night. A few thunderstorms could be possible, otherwise, it will mostly be in the form of showers.
Warm Tuesday - Cooler Weather To End The Week
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas
We are finding ourselves back in the "we need more precipitation than we have received" boat over the past month at MSP. Since September 1st MSP has only received 1.77" of rain - over half of which (0.96") fell before Labor Day. That's almost three inches below average over the time frame and brings us back over 6" below average for the year. The 21.57" of precipitation in 2021 so far is the 41st driest to date on record.
We have one shot at precipitation during the work week here in the metro with a system moving in mid-week. That should bring at least a quarter to half-inch of rain across the southern two-thirds of the state. The good news is that the extended precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show the potential for above-average precipitation for the last week of the month.
Another warm autumn day is expected today before that mid-week system brings highs closer to average in the low to mid-50s from Thursday through the weekend. Signs show highs mainly in the 50s and 60s to end October.
D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast
TUESDAY: Some clouds early and late. Low 51. High 72. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Showers. Rumble of thunder? Low 52. High 60. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind ENE 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Cooler. Mix of sun and clouds. Wake up 40. High 52. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind N 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: AM frost. Sprinkle/flurry up north? Wake up 35. High 49. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NNW 3-8 mph.
SATURDAY: Frosty start. Increasing clouds. Wake up 35. High 49. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Wake up 38. High 51. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-15 mph.
MONDAY: Gray skies. Rain overnight. Wake up 41. High 53. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 5-15 mph.
Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 46 minutes, and 22 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 59 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight? October 25th (10 hours, 28 minutes, and 41 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before Time Change: November 6th (7:58 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 6:00 PM?: November 1st (6:00 PM)
This Day in Weather History
2000: The warmest October 19th in Minnesota history occurs for many towns. Many cities had highs in the 80s, with the Twin Cities hitting 84. Appleton in Swift County reported 90 degrees.
1972: A cold snap moves through Minnesota, with lows of 1 above in Tower and 9 in St. Peter and Luverne.
1916: Redwood Falls receives a record-setting 7 inches of snow.
National Weather Forecast
A system moving east across the mid-section of the nation will bring rain and snow chances from the Rockies to the western Dakotas, with showers and storms stretching as far east as southern Minnesota by Tuesday Night. Rain and some higher elevation snow will also be possible from the Pacific Northwest down into central California.
Showers and a few rumbles of thunder across the nation will lead to areas of mainly under three inches of rain through the middle of the week. Meanwhile, several inches of snow could pile up the next few days from the Sierra to portions of western South Dakota.
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Boris Johnson's climate credibility at stake in run-up to Cop26 summit
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Prince William announces winners of first Earthshot Prize to tackle climate crisis
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser