VikesCentric: Yet another NFL Draft approach--needs analysis

It's mid-April with less than two weeks remaining until the NFL Draft. Here and elsewhere countless hours have been spent analyzing just what the Vikings might do with the 11th overall pick in the draft—and we are no closer to knowing. But that doesn't stop us from looking for one more way to predict the future.

We all have our wishes and hopes for who we want to see the Vikings select. We all figure that filling a certain need could make the most immediate impact to the team, and we have an idea who we like to see taken. But all that could go out the window when the Vikings take the best player available or trade out of their pick or a player drops to them that they can't pass up—wild card moves that alter reasoned plans.

So, here's my attempt to look at this in a purely analytical way. I'm saying take those wild card variables out of the equation and analyze it on solely a basis of need (I've already done the best player available approach). Try to figure out the biggest hole in the Vikings roster and suggest that they fill it. I am not saying general manager Rick Spielman will follow this suggestion, I am just proposing a simple mathematical solution: A—Vikings' greatest need + B—a player fills that need = C—the Vikings pick. Easy peasy, right?

As has been discussed, the Vikings have a number of needs going into the draft. Focusing on just starting needs and forgetting about depth for the moment, the Vikings need a cornerback, a safety, a left guard and a middle linebacker. (A defensive end to add into the rotation would be nice, and a wide receiver to grow with young quarterback Teddy Bridgewater would bolster that unit—but those are more best player available picks.)

So, we take each position, determine what's needed, analyze who's out there and try to match up a selection. We'll grade the need on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the greatest need.

Left guard

The Need: The Vikings released former left guard Charlie Johnson this offseason, creating a gaping hole in the spot between center John Sullivan and left tackle Matt Kalil (who is coming off his worst season as a pro). Backup guard Vladimir Ducasse also defected to the Bears via free agency.

The player: Iowa guard Brandon Scherff, seen by many as the top guard in the draft. Scherff is big at 6-5, 319 pounds and can apparently lift a house. He would make for a nice compliment next to Kalil. If Scherff makes it to 11 (some mock drafts say yes, others no), he is just what the Vikings need to solidify the line for their young, developing quarterback and aging running back. Another possibility is tackle/guard La'El Collins from LSU.

Need analysis grade: 4--Berger can do the job, but his value was highest when he came off the bench at several positions (particularly at center) last season. Draft Scherff, let him learn behind Berger for a short time and then start him.

Cornerback

The Need: The Vikings have been lacking at corner for years, and now appear to have a decent one in Xavier Rhodes. The roster includes Josh Robinson and Captain Munnerlyn as either starters or nickel and dime players (and the Vikings are hopeful for the development of Jabari Price who they drafted last season). But the unit could use another corner who could develop in Mike Zimmer's system as Rhodes showed to do last season.

Actions taken: The Vikings signed 36-year-old Terence Newman, who might have had a foot out the door toward retirement. Newman is familiar with Zimmer's system, has plenty of experience and will be a good teacher/mentor for the younger players, but he is stop-gap at best. If the Vikings can find a player of Rhodes caliber, they will be well on their way to turning a former team weakness into a strength.

Need analysis grade: 3--Munnerlyn had a down season last year (by his own admission) and took the acquisition of Newman as a personal challenge to do better. Corner is an important position—especially in the NFC North--and if the Vikings feel they can develop Waynes into a shutdown corner they should take him at 11. If not, they may have to grab Peters later or put off moving forward at corner another year.

Safety

The Need: Free safety Harrison Smith is a stud and is in the final year of his contract (the Vikings have a fifth-year option). Before the Vikings do anything else, they need to lock him up, as he will only get better in Zimmer's defense. But he needs a stronger player alongside him at the strong safety position.

Actions taken: The Vikings went back to the well (Cincinnati) again and grabbed former Zimmer disciple Taylor Mays in free agency. Mays is big (6-3, 225 pounds), loves to hit and should thrive once again in Zimmer's defense, given his versatility—but he will have to prove himself to be the long-term answer at free safety.

The player: Alabama strong safety Landon Collins is rated as the top strong safety in the draft, but he doesn't show up in many mock drafters until the 20 spot. Collins is good in run support but is said to have just average hands. He can work with Smith on the Jugs machine.

Middle Linebacker

The Need: After a one-year return to Minnesota, mike linebacker Jasper Brinkley left via free agency again, signing with the Dallas Cowboys. The Vikings starting linebackers look to be Anthony Barr, Gerald Hodges and Chad Greenway—not terrible, but there isn't much middle linebacker experience there. Will the Vikings try once again to move Greenway inside like they did during training camp last year, or is he becoming relegated to backup duty? I'm not sure I want to see Barr in the middle after his great season in 2014 outside. Perhaps it becomes Hodges spot to lose. Regardless, the Vikings must address this position.

Actions taken: The Vikings signed two free agent linebackers, Brian Peters of the CFL and Casey Matthews from the Philadelphia Eagles. They are depth signings at best and neither should be seen as a starter (Matthews had 22 tackles starting 11 games last season while Barr had 55 in 12 games).

The Player: There are several linebackers slated as first-round material. Dante Fowler, Jr. and Vic Beasley are expected to go in the top 10, and Randy Gregory a little later. All are outside linebackers in 3-4 schemes, and the Vikings can teach them the 4-3 scheme but they already have Barr who didn't play a lot of linebacker in college. Plus Gregory has a failed drug test at the Combine on his resume, and therefore has slipped a bit.

Need analysis grade: 3—The Vikings need a mike linebacker, but with the way offenses are passing the ball these days, that position gets less and less time on the field. So I think they may end up passing on linebacker at No. 11. But the linebacking unit as a whole, needs another decent starter, so if one fell in their lap such as Fowler or Beasley, it might be hard to pass up.

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