UFC 121 Fight Card

_{(UFC Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar)}

Heavyweight Title: Brock Lesnar (champion) (5-1) vs Cain Velasquez (8-0)

Most MMA experts are picking Velasquez, but the easy pick has always been to go against Lesnar. Velasquez doesn't have Shane Carwin's knockout power, and we saw in the Carwin fight that you are not going to overwhelm Lesnar with strikes, which is what Velasquez is looking to do.

Velasquez not only has the D1 wrestling credentials, but he's well rounded with solid boxing, kickboxing and jiu-jitsu skills. His trainers rave about his cardo skills, but so did Shane Carwin's trainers. He trains at the American Kickboxing Academy in San Jose, Calif., with the likes of UFC welterweight contenders Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. Velasquez will be looking to keep his distance from Lesnar and use long strikes, both kicks and straight punches, to chop down the champion.

Both men say they are preparing for a five round battle. Lesnar will enter the cage with at least a 30-pound weight advantage, which can wear down an opponent in the later rounds. Lesnar believes his NCAA title proves he is the better wrestler, and those two things will be the deciding factors in the later rounds. Lesnar brought in UFC heavyweight Pat Berry to help with his kickboxing as well.

Lesnar has a training partner that knows Cain inside and out, he's more confident in his fighting ability then ever before, and he's got the new killer beard. Velasquez may be the more well rounded fighter, but the distractions of doing interviews all across the country and filming the Primetime specials have overwhelmed better fighters than Velasquez (see GSP vs Matt Serra).

Pick: Lesnar by TKO round 3.

Jake Shields makes his UFC debut after defeating Dan Henderson in a five round defense of the Strikeforce welterweight title. He left the belt and Strikeforce behind for greener pastures in the UFC. Shields is on a 14 fight win streak, including a win over Paul Daley, who defeated Martin Kampmann last September.

Most people believe this is a bad matchup for Shields, who is expected to challenge the winner of December's George St. Pierre-Josh Koscheck fight if he wins tonight. Shields has a better ground game, Kampmann is better on his feet. Shields will look to take Kampmann down, and even early success at blocking the takedown might not be enough, as Shields was able to wear down Henderson in their fight with repeated attempts until Henderson was to tired to stop them.

I am making a last minute switch here and going with Shields, his quality of opponents have been stronger, though there is more pressure on him to win and impress in his UFC debut then there is on Kampmann, who is not in line for a title shot even if he wins and is only playing spoiler.

Pick: Shields by decision after three rounds.

Welterweights: Diego Sanchez (21-4) vs Paulo Thiago (13-2):

Thiago upset Koscheck in his UFC debut, then lost to Kos' American Kickboxing Academy teammate Jon Fitch by decision five months later. He rebounded from the loss with a decision victory over former University of Minnesota wrestler Jacob Volkmann and a submission win over another AKA member, Mick Swick, before losing to Martin Kampmann by decision last June. Thiago is almost a member of the a special forces Brazillian police squad when he is not fighting.

Pick: Thiago by TKO in round 2.

Light Heavyweights: Tito Ortiz (15-7-1) vs Matt Hamill (9-2):

Love him or hate him, Tito Ortiz is one of the most well known fighter in the UFC. Unfortunately he hasn't been relevant in four years, going 0-3-1 in his last four fights, and costing himself a win in his fight against Rashad Evans by constantly grabbing the cage and having a point deducted, changing a win into a draw. Ortiz was scheduled to face Chuck Liddell earlier this year but was forced to pull out after having surgery near the end of the filming of The Ultimate Fighter season building up to that fight. Ortiz swears he is 100% health, something he claimed before every other fight, but always has an excuse afterwards for why he lost.

Matt Hamill has put together a four fight win streak, though one of those wins was by disqualification after he was devastated on the ground by Jon Jones with a flurry of illegal elbows. Hamill is best known for being the only deaf fighter in the UFC and is an advocate for issues involving the hearing impaired. His last fight was a majority decision fight of the night against Keith Jardine in June.

Pick: Hamill by decision after three rounds.

Heavyweights: Brandan Schaub (6-1) vs Gabriel Gonzaga (11-5) :

Schaub, an Ultimate Fighter runner-up, is another up-and-comer looking to make a breakthrough in the UFC heavyweight division. Schaub would have most likely won season 10 of TUF if Roy Nelson, who had 30+ fights heading into the house, hadn't been there. Schaub defeated one of Brock Lesnar's training partners, Chris Tuchscherer earlier this year by TKO. He played in the Arena Football League and was a member of the Buffalo Bills practice squad. He trains with Rashad Evans at the Colorado branch of Greg Jackson's Submission Fighting School.

Gonzaga has become the UFC heavyweight gatekeeper, losing to both Junior Dos Santos and Shane Carwin on their way to a title shot. His most recent win was also over Tuchscherer in August of 2009. He beats all of the mid-level fighters, with his losses to the likes of Dos Santos, Carwin, Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum (twice). Gonzaga got his start training at the Chute Box Academy in Brazil when it was one of the most dominate schools in the world, but now has his own school in Massachusetts.

The question will be if Schaub is ready for someone at Gonzaga's level. Gonzaga has experience and quality of opponents in his favor. Schaub has youth on his side and is a better natural athlete.