Turning Point showcases the discord that Republicans like Vance will need to navigate in the future

PHOENIX — The next presidential election is three years away, but Turning Point USA already knows it wants Vice President JD Vance as the Republican nominee.

Erika Kirk, leader of the powerful conservative youth organization, endorsed him on opening night of its annual AmericaFest convention, drawing cheers from the crowd.

But the four-day gathering revealed more peril than promise for Vance or any other potential successor to President Donald Trump, and the tensions on display foreshadow the treacherous waters that they will need to navigate in the coming years. The ''Make America Great Again'' movement is fracturing as Republicans begin considering a future without Trump, and there is no clear path to holding his coalition together as different factions jockey for influence.

''Who gets to run it after?" asked commentator Tucker Carlson in his speech at the conference. ''Who gets the machinery when the president exits the scene?''

Vance, who has not said whether he will run for president, is Turning Point's closing speaker Sunday, appearing at the end of a lineup that includes U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Donald Trump Jr.

Turning Point backs Vance

for president

Turning Point is a major force on the right, with a nationwide volunteer network that can be especially helpful in early primary states, when candidates rely on grassroots energy to build momentum.

The endorsement carried ''at least a little bit of weight'' for 20 year-old Kiara Wagner, who traveled from Toms River, New Jersey, for the conference.

''If someone like Erika can support JD Vance, then I can too,'' Wagner said.

Vance was close with Charlie Kirk. After Kirk's assassination on a college campus in Utah, the vice president flew out on Air Force Two to collect Kirk's remains and bring them home to Arizona. The vice president helped uniformed service members carry the casket to the plane.

A post-Trump Republican Party?

So far, it looks like settling that question will require a lot of fighting among conservatives. Turning Point featured arguments about antisemitism, Israel and environmental regulations, not to mention rivalries between leading commentators.

Carlson said the idea of a Republican ''civil war'' was ''totally fake.''

''There are people who are mad at JD Vance, and they're stirring up a lot of this in order to make sure he doesn't get the nomination," he said. Carlson describe Vance as ''the one person'' who subscribes to the ''core idea of the Trump coalition,'' which Carlson said was ''America first.''

Turning Point spokesperson Andrew Kolvet framed the discord as a healthy debate about the future of the movement, an uncomfortable but necessary process of finding consensus.

''We're not hive-minded commies,'' he wrote on X. ''Let it play out.''

''It has to be JD Vance because he has been so awesome when it comes to literally any question,'' said Tomas Morales, a videographer from Los Angeles. He said "there's no other choice.''

Trump has not chosen a successor, though he has spoken highly of both Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, even suggesting they could form a future Republican ticket. Rubio has said he would support Vance.

Asked in August whether Vance was the ''heir apparent,'' Trump said ''most likely.''

''It's too early, obviously, to talk about it, but certainly he's doing a great job, and he would be probably favorite at this point,'' he said.

Any talk of future campaigns is complicated by Trump's occasional musings about seeking a third term.