Rain/Snow To Wake Up Sunday


American NAM model. WeatherBell.

As we head through Saturday Night into Sunday, a batch of rain and snow showers will move their way across the state. The good news is that most of this should be done by the mid-morning hours, with snow only hanging on in the Arrowhead into the early afternoon.

The heaviest snow amounts are expected across portions of central Minnesota, where an inch or two of snow could accumulate as we head through Saturday Night into Sunday.

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Another System Impacts The Region Before Thanksgiving

American GFS model. WeatherBell.

And another system looks to impact the upper Midwest as we head toward Tuesday. There are still differences in the models as to what will completely happen. Above is the American GFS model, which shows precipitation starting out as snow in the Twin Cities but quickly changing to rain. It also shows heavier total precipitation amounts, though again a lot of that would be in the form of liquid in southern Minnesota. Not shown is the European model, which is colder and has less precipitation, so there's the chance most of the precipitation could stay as snow in the Twin Cities before a changeover to a mix/all rain toward the end. Stay tuned over the next few days as this system comes into better focus.

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Thanksgiving Day Weather

Looking toward Thanksgiving, it'll thankfully be a quiet day across the region with a mix of sun and clouds to mainly cloudy skies. A cold front does look to move on through during the day, but it should be a dry frontal passage. Highs will range from the upper 20s up by Roseau to the low 40s in southern parts of the state.

As we look at the upper Midwest for Thanksgiving Day, we should see fairly quiet weather across much of the region. The only chance of showers will be out toward Cleveland. Highs will range from the 20s and 30s around the International Border to around 60F in parts of Kentucky.

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AM Rain/Snow Today - Next System Moves In Tuesday
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

My snowshoes are just a bit disappointed so far this season. Even though areas from the Twin Cities to St. Cloud and Duluth are running about 10-20" above average in the snow department since we saw that first snow in October, most of that has quickly melted away. As of Saturday morning, Duluth had 3" of snow on the ground, down from the 11" snow depth they had last Sunday morning.

While we are waking up to a few rain and snow showers, those should quickly move east this morning with a mix of sun and clouds through the afternoon. Areas from St. Cloud up to Grand Rapids could see an inch or two of snow accumulate. Monday looks dry before another system takes aim at the region Tuesday. Across northern Minnesota that system should stay mainly snow, with snow changing to rain in southern areas of the state.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, a cold front will move through. However, it should be a dry frontal passage, with just cloud cover in place as you virtually gather your loved ones for turkey and mashed potatoes.

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: AM mix. Sun/clouds PM. Wake up 31. High 41. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind WNW 5-15 mph.
MONDAY: Increasing afternoon clouds. Wake up 25. High 37. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 5-15 mph.
TUESDAY: Snow changing to rain. Wake up 32. High 40. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind WSW 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Sunnier skies by the afternoon. Wake up 30. High 39. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy for turkey carving. Wake up 29. High 42. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Cooler. Gray start, PM sun. Wake up 27. High 37. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Sunny and nice for late November. Wake up 27. High 39. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
November 22nd

1996: Heavy snowfall accumulates over the same areas that were hit two days earlier.  Four to seven inches of snowfall are reported across the area. Heavier snowfall occurred during the daylight hours of the 23rd.  Snowfall totals of six inches were reported in the Twin Cities, Chanhassen, Stewart, St. James, and Redwood  Falls.

1970: Gale-driven snow falls across Minnesota. 45 mph winds are reported over Rochester and Duluth.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
November 22nd

Average High: 37F (Record: 60F set in 2012)
Average Low: 23F (Record: -6F set in 1880)
Average Precipitation: 0.05" (Record: 0.74" set in 2016)
Average Snowfall: 0.4" (Record: 5.5" in 1898)
Record Snow Depth: 11" in 1921

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 22nd

Sunrise: 7:20 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 16 minutes and 59 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 1 second

*When Do We Drop Below 9 Hours Of Daylight? December 2nd (8 hours, 59 minutes, and 48 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 7:30 AM?: November 30th (7:30 AM)
*When Is The Earliest Sunset?: December 4th-13th (4:31 PM)

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Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook

Once again we will start off with a few snow or rain/snow showers across the metro Sunday morning, but those will quickly push off to the east through the morning hours. We'll see a mix of sun and clouds to mainly cloudy skies through the rest of the day. Morning temperatures start off around freezing, climbing to the low 40s for highs.

We could also see some gusty winds behind that system as we head into the afternoon hours, with wind gusts out of the west-northwest up to around 20 mph.

In many areas across the state, snow will push out during the morning hours but could hang around into the afternoon in portions of the Arrowhead. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds can be expected in many locations. Highs will range from the upper 20s in northwestern portions of the state to the low 40s in southern Minnesota.

Highs in many areas of the state Sunday will be a few degrees above average. The average high in the Twin Cities for November 22nd is 37F.

Highs will slightly cool into Monday, only reaching the upper 30s. However, highs will remain fairly steady through Thanksgiving, situated in the upper 30s to low 40s - up to about 5F degrees above average.

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National Weather Forecast

As an area of low pressure tracks from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Northeast Sunday, showers and storms will be possible from the Southern Plains to coastal areas of the Northeast. In some interior areas of the Northeast, rain, snow, and ice will be possible. A low moving across the upper Midwest will bring the chance of rain and snow showers. Rain and higher elevation snow will be possible in the Pacific Northwest as a system moves in.

An inch or two of rain could fall through the beginning of the Thanksgiving week from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley. Up to a foot of snow could fall in the Cascades, with up to a half a foot in far northern Maine.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, it should be quiet across a good portion of the country. Some showers will be possible in the eastern United States with some snow back into the Rockies. Areas across the central and eastern United States will see highs that are mainly above average for late November, with below-average highs back into the western United States (minus Arizona and New Mexico).

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Global heating may go on for five more centuries

More from Climate News Network: "Norwegian scientists have mapped the future of the Earth in a regime of climate change and have come to an uncomfortable conclusion: it’s likely that global heating will persist until around the year 2500. Even if human beings immediately ceased all use of fossil fuels that spill greenhouse gases into the planetary atmosphere, the world would be committed to warming for the next five centuries, they suggest. By then global temperatures would be at least 3°C higher, and sea levels three metres higher, than they would have been in 1850. Even with a dramatic halt to the emissions that fuel global heating, they warn in the journal Scientific Reports, the Arctic ice would go on melting, water vapour would continue to build up in the atmosphere, the permafrost would continue to thaw and vast reservoirs of ancient carbon that had been trapped in the once-frozen ground would escape into the atmosphere."

Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

More from Scientific American: "Others are known but have unpredictable behavior after release. New evidence of genes moving between thawing ecosystems indicates a restructuring at multiple levels. In the Arctic Ocean, planktonic Chloroflexi bacteria recently acquired genes used for degrading carbon from land-based Actinobacteria species. As melt-swollen Arctic rivers carried sediments from thawing permafrost to the sea, the genes for processing permafrost carbon were also transported."

Biden SEC Likely to Push More Climate, Diversity Disclosures

More from Bloomberg Law: "The SEC will have the power, under Democratic control, to mandate corporate disclosures on diversity and climate change risks, police more of Wall Street, and reverse recent efforts to ease capital raising in private markets in the coming years. President-elect Joe Biden has made addressing racial equity and climate change priorities for his administration, saying he’d require companies to disclose climate risks and the racial and gender composition of their boards."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

 - D.J. Kayser

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Sunny Saturday - Rain/Snow Mix Possible Sunday Morning

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Pre-Thanksgiving Rain And Snow Expected Tuesday