Streaky Wild could turn hot for playoffs

April 8, 2016 at 1:29AM
San Jose Sharks' Patrick Marleau, right, celebrates as he scores his second goal of the NHL hockey game against Minnesota Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk in the third period Tuesday, April 5, 2016, in St. Paul, Minn. Marleau scored the other goal in the second period. The Sharks won 3-0. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)
The Wild has ridden goalie Devan Dubnyk through its downs — above he gave up a goal against the Sharks — … (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The Wild played the first half of this NHL season, 41 games, with something that resembled consistency. The Wild stood at 22-11-8 in the standings at the midpoint — 52 points, on pace for 104, a number that in retrospect would have put them at least in the hunt for a high seed in the West.

The second half, then, has been so many things by comparison:

• Terrible is a good word to start with. The Wild has 87 points and can finish with a maximum of 89. It will make the playoffs with the fewest points in the West for a postseason qualifier since 1999-2000, the first year the NHL awarded points for OT losses. It will get a maximum of 37 points in the second half of the season — a pace over a full season that would put the Wild among the worst teams in the NHL.

• Framed more favorably, the word fortunate could be used. Despite the second-half struggles, the Wild is in the postseason. And in the playoffs, not much matters but the seven potential games in front of a team. The Wild benefited from a middling year from Colorado, which included a late slump. The Wild also were aided by Arizona's second-half collapse. Through 41 games, the Coyotes had 46 points. They entered Thursday with 77.

• But the overall word I would use to describe the second half is "streaky." And that gives rise to a weird theory about the Wild as it prepares for the playoffs: The best way to predict that this team is about to go on a winning streak is to ask, "Is the Wild currently on a losing streak?" The answer is yes, with four losses in a row.

Consider the past 40 games, starting with the first game of second half of the season: The Wild lost 13 of the first 14 games to start the second half of the season, a brutal stretch that ended with Mike Yeo being fired. John Torchetti took over and the Wild won its next four games … then lost its next three games … then won its next four again … then lost four of its next five … then won its next six … and now has lost its past four going into Saturday's meaningless (in the standings) finale against Calgary.

I couldn't tell you the exact reason for the up-and-down nature of this team, but we've seen in more than enough over the years — and now with another coach, albeit in a small sample size — to conclude it is a real thing.

And it makes the Wild an oddly intriguing playoff team — a true wild card of a wild card. You might look at another team that's on a four-game losing streak, one that is deemed to have "backed into" the playoffs with uninspired play and one with a low point total, and conclude that team is primed for a quick playoff exit.

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With this Wild squad, though, you might conclude just the opposite. This is a team that historically and recently is most dangerous just when everything looks to be at its worst, and when everything is on the line.

That's not to say you should pick the Wild for another first-round upset (or more), but I'm saying nobody should be surprised if this weird team elevates its game for at least one playoff series yet again. It all depends on how fast the Wild pulls itself out of this latest skid and how long the next hot streak lasts.

Minnesota Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk (40) bumped fists with teammates after their win over Chicago Tuesday. ] (AARON LAVINSKY/STAR TRIBUNE) aaron.lavinsky@startribune.com The Minnesota Wild played the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday, March 29, 2016 at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minn.
and its ups. … Dubnyk. above, celebrated a recent win with Jonas Brodin, (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Michael Rand

Columnist / Reporter

Michael Rand is the Minnesota Star Tribune's Digital Sports Senior Writer and host/creator of the Daily Delivery podcast. In 25 years covering Minnesota sports at the Minnesota Star Tribune, he has seen just about everything (except, of course, a Vikings Super Bowl).

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