Star Tribune staff football picks, Saturday's state semifinals

Staff writers Jim Paulsen and David La Vaque trade insights on the third and last day of football state tournament semifinals at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Jim says: No slight to Spring Lake Park, but I've had an unshakable feeling that Mankato West and Elk River are destined for a showdown in the Prep Bowl. Spring Lake Park's Zach Ojile is undefeated at a starter at QB, but that streak ends here. West is a juggernaut right now.

Pick: Mankato West 40, Spring Lake Park 21

David says: Both teams run the ball so well, led by quarterbacks Ojile and Robert Meidl (Scarlets). But Meidl is asked to throw more often and usually succeeds. The X-factor: How will Meidl and standout running back C.J. Terry handle their two-way duties inside warmer U.S. Bank Stadium?

Pick: Mankato West 24, Spring Lake Park 21

Jim says: Tom Elliot of the St. Cloud Times — the oracle of central Minnesota football — assures me that Pierz's size will help make up for the Pioneers' losses to injury. But St. Croix Lutheran is used to playing bigger teams. No team executes with more precision than the Crusaders.

Pick: St. Croix Lutheran 34, Pierz 24

Pick: St. Croix Lutheran 31, Pierz 20

Jim says: Experience counts for much at this time of year. Rochester Lourdes won the 3A title in 2014. Its 14 seniors played on that team. That included the two leading rushers, Carter Greguson and Noah Hillman, who started. Advantage, Lourdes.

Pick: Rochester Lourdes 26, Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton 13

David says: Sure, Rochester Lourdes eclipsed 3,000 rushing yards this season. But this stat also impresses: Only one team had a 100-yard rusher against the Eagles this fall. A team that controls things up front on both sides of the ball is a Prep Bowl-caliber team.

Pick: Rochester Lourdes 28, D-G-F 21

Pick: North 36, Wabasso 28.

David says: The Polars are accustomed to having the best athletes on the field. Not this time. Wabasso running back Mitchell Fulton, who has rushed for more than 2,100 yards this season, has gone to state in wrestling and as a sprinter on the track team. Now he's going to the Prep Bowl.

Pick: Wabasso 24, North 20

Jim says: There was much hand-wringing and consternation in southeastern Minnesota when Noah Carlson was left off the list of 10 Mr. Football finalists. With good reason. He's rushed for almost 2,400 yards and 36 touchdowns.

Pick: Rushford-Peterson 28, Browerville/EV 20