Severe Weather Threat

We are tracking the potential for some severe weather across southern Minnesota as we go through the Memorial Day weekend. A Marginal Risk of severe weather is in place Sunday. A line of storms moving out of South Dakota during the morning hours could produce some gusty winds and hail before dying out. Additional storms that form Sunday evening and Sunday night could produce large hail and some damaging wind gusts.

You can see that line of storms dying off as it moves across southern Minnesota during the morning hours Sunday. More showers and storms will then be possible, mainly across southern Minnesota, as we head into the evening and overnight hours.

Here's a breakdown of that severe weather potential on Sunday from NWS Twin Cities (LINK to original tweet).

A Marginal Risk of severe weather also exists Memorial Day Monday across far southeastern Minnesota. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threat with any stronger storms across the region.


Past Memorial Day Monday Weather - And The Forecast For 2020

Image: Minnesota State Climatology Office/MN DNR

Memorial Day has been an official federal holiday since 1971, and even with it being at the end of May temperatures can vary a lot. Since 1971, we've seen a high of 100F (back in 2018), a low of 39 (back in 1993) and up to 1.83" of rain (2018) at MSP airport. The Minnesota State Climatology Office/MN DNR notes that the day remains dry 60-70% of the time. Click here to read more, including climatological stats for the full Memorial Day weekend.

This Memorial Day features the chance of some showers and thunderstorms across the state. Highs will mainly be in the 70s, but a few 60s are possible along the North Shore and in northwestern Minnesota.


No 80F Day So Far At MSP

We have failed to have a high of 80F yet so far at the MSP Airport in 2020. The warmest we have been was 78F back at the beginning of the month.

This is the latest we have seen our first 80F degree high since at least 2014, when it occurred on May 24th. The latest first 80F on record was back on June 16, 1883. We should hopefully see our first 80F within the next week - more on that below.


A Little Better For Outdoor Plans Today
By Paul Douglas

How are you enjoying the holiday weekend so far? Why should Mother Nature cooperate? The sun was quarantined much of Saturday, with roving bands of heavy showers pushing through town. If it's any consolation, the tornadoes stayed over Iowa, Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

The transition to summer can be a tortured affair. The upper atmosphere is still chilly, while temperatures near the ground are warming rapidly. Instability combines with strong and shifting winds with altitude (wind shear) to create a ripe environment for severe storms.

Such is the case today with a "slight risk" of severe storms over southern Minnesota. More of today will be dry, with spurts and squirts of sunshine, but watch for strong to severe storms mushrooming to life later in the day.

The same goes for Memorial Day: a few hours of sunshine possible, but ripe conditions for PM T-storms.

We dry out on Tuesday (naturally) with some 80s expected next week. NOAA's GFS model still predicts a few 90s by early June. I'm so ready.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Some sun, strong T-storms. Wake up 60. High 79. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.
MONDAY: Unsettled with more showers, T-storms. Wake up 64. High 80. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, drier. Wake up 63. High 78. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine, quite pleasant. Wake up 62. High 82. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 7-12 mph.
THURSDAY: Sunny, breezy and less humid. Wake up 60. High 79. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
FRIDAY: Blue sky, pretty spectacular. Wake up 57. High 76. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Warm sun, T-storms possible late. Wake up 59. High 82. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 15-25 mph.


This Day in Weather History
May 24th

1925: After seeing a high of 99 degrees two days earlier, the Twin Cities picks up a tenth (.10) of an inch of snow.

1908: Tornadoes hit the counties of Martin and Blue Earth.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
May 24th

Average High: 72F (Record: 95F set in 2010)
Average Low: 51F (Record: 32F set in 1925)
Average Precipitation: 0.11" (Record: 2.58" set in 2012)
Average Snowfall: 0.0" (Record: 0.1" set in 1925)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 24th

Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:45 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 10 minutes and 52 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~1 minutes and 50 seconds

*When Do We Climb To 15.5 Hours Of Daylight? June 7th (15 hours, 30 minutes, and 29 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 5:30 AM: May 30th (6:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 9:00 PM: June 12th (9:00 PM)


Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook

We'll be watching a couple of chances for showers and storms in the Twin Cities on Sunday. The first will be courtesy of a dying line of storms moving out of South Dakota that could impact us sometime in the late morning/midday hours - if it makes it as far as the Twin Cities. Another chance of storms will bubble up across the region heading into the evening hours. It'll be a warm morning - starting off in the low 60s - with highs climbing into the upper 70s.

Shower and storm chances exist across much of the state Sunday, but the highest chance of seeing some rain will be across southern Minnesota. It doesn't appear like anywhere should see an all-day washout. Highs will mainly be in the 70s across the state and potentially approach 80F in some locations. Highs along portions of the North Shore, however, will be stuck in the 60s.

These highs across the state Sunday will be above average for the second half of May, about 5F degrees or so above average in central and southern Minnesota but 10-15F degrees above average in northern Minnesota. The average high in the Twin Cities for May 24th is 72F.

We'll continue to flirt with 80F in the Twin Cities as we go into Memorial Day Monday before slightly cooler weather (mid-70s) returns Tuesday. We should be able to reach the 80s for highs over the next several days, even if it doesn't come until the middle of the week.


National Weather Forecast

On Sunday, showers and storms will be possible across a good portion of the central and eastern United States with several low-pressure areas in play. However, big cities such as Boston, New York City, and Washington D.C. should remain dry. A few rain/snow showers will be possible in the northern and central Rockies, with a few rain showers in the Pacific Northwest with a cold front nearby.

As we head into Memorial Day Monday, more storms will be possible across the mid-section of the nation stretching into the Southeast. Some rain will also be possible in the Pacific Northwest. A few record highs will be possible in the Ohio Valley.

A swath of 2-4" of rain will be possible through Memorial Day across central portions of the nation. Snow is still falling in portions of the west, with several inches possible in the Northern Rockies.


Snow Out West

Link to tweet

Geeze... it feels like 2020 just keeps kicking us. Snow has been falling Saturday out in the Northern Rockies, with 8" of snow reported near Wayan, ID, and 4.3" near Goshen, ID.


Heat Builds In The Southwest

As we head into the last week of May, heat will once again build across portions of the Southwest, with Excessive Heat Watches in place. In San Francisco these are in place from Monday through Thursday. In Las Vegas and Phoenix, they are in place from Wednesday through Friday. Here's a look at expected highs across the Southwest from Monday through Friday:


See a wild underwater 'benthic tornado' whirl across the sea floor

More from CNET: "Here's the weather forecast for the Coral Sea Marine Park seafloor off the coast of Australia: wet with a chance of tornadoes. Researchers following a Schmidt Ocean Institute ROV (remotely operated vehicle) dive near Queensland spotted a wild event when a tornado-like formation appeared on camera during a livestream on Thursday."

A clue as to why it’s so hard to wake up on a cold winter’s morning

More from Northwestern University: "Winter may be behind us, but do you remember the challenge of waking up on those cold, dark days? Temperature affects the behavior of nearly all living creatures, but there is still much to learn about the link between sensory neurons and neurons controlling the sleep-wake cycle. Northwestern University neurobiologists have uncovered a clue to what’s behind this behavior. In a study of the fruit fly, the researchers have identified a “thermometer” circuit that relays information about external cold temperature from the fly antenna to the higher brain. They show how, through this circuit, seasonally cold and dark conditions can inhibit neurons within the fly brain that promote activity and wakefulness, particularly in the morning."

Nitrogen Dioxide Levels Rebound in China

Image: NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) data from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), and modified Copernicus Sentinel 5P data processed by the European Space Agency.

More from NASA: "In early February 2020, scientists using NASA and European satellites detected a significant reduction in a key air pollutant over China after the country shut down transportation and much of its economy. Three months later, with most coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdowns ending in China and economic activity resuming, the levels of nitrogen dioxide over the country have returned to near normal for this time of year. Scientists expected this rebound."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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Rain Chances Heading Into Memorial Day Weekend

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