Sean Payton's gamble: The decision that derailed the Broncos' Super Bowl dreams

DENVER — With a blizzard bearing down on Empower Field at Mile High, coach Sean Payton went for the jugular instead of the points, short-circuiting the Denver Broncos' drive to Super Bowl 60.

''There will always be second thoughts,'' Payton said in the anguished aftermath of Denver's 10-7 loss to the New England Patriots in the AFC championship Sunday.

Backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham's first completion in 749 days was a 52-yard dart to Marvin Mims Jr. that set up Courtland Sutton's 6-yard touchdown catch in the first quarter. Stidham drove the Broncos to the Patriots' doorstep again early in the second quarter and the stadium was rocking with the thought of the franchise's ninth Super Bowl berth and first in a decade.

Payton called a timeout on fourth-and-1 at the New England 14. But instead of sending out Wil Lutz for a 31-yard field goal attempt — two yards shorter than an extra point — Payton kept his offense on the field, and not to try to draw the Patriots offside, either.

His first intention was a run up the middle behind the NFL's highest-paid offensive line, one that features a pair of All-Pros in right guard Quinn Meinerz and left tackle Garett Bolles, but Payton opted to have his swashbuckling backup QB, the one with one career victory in six NFL seasons, run a bootleg right and throw the ball.

Stidham could have found wide receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey open over the middle, but he keyed in on running back R.J. Harvey. And when Stidham was pressured, he threw the ball at Harvey's feet incomplete.

Instead of a two-score lead over an opponent that had managed a measly 12 yards of offense to that point and with nasty weather on the horizon, the Broncos saw their early momentum evaporate along with the first-half sunshine.

''Hindsight, the initial run thought was a better decision,'' Payton said. ''There's always regrets. Look, I felt like here we are fourth-and-1. I felt close enough. Also, it's a call you make based on the team you are playing and what you are watching on the other side of the ball. But, there will always be second thoughts.''

Pundits, critics and commentators have been giving Payton the third degree ever since.

''Go up 10-0. Keep the momentum," ESPN analyst Booger McFarland insisted. "Because you did your homework before the game. You knew the weather was going to turn nasty. Even though Wil Lutz is a good kicker, it was going to be tough to kick in inclement weather. I thought this was a poor coaching decision and move by Sean Payton.

''If you're going to go for it, how about run the ball?'' McFarland added. ''I mean, it's fourth and 3 feet. Or a 31-yard field goal. Instead, you go reverse-pivot with a quarterback making his first start.''

Mark Schlereth, NFL analyst for Fox Sports, said on ''The Dan Patrick Show'' that he was in Peyton Manning's suite at the game with Manning, Mike Shanahan and Brandon Stokley. He said they all figured Payton would send out his kicker to make it a two-score game.

"And plus, at that point, you hadn't run the ball for 2 inches. So, it's not like you feel like, hey man, they're really going to respect our run game. They're really going to respect what we're doing here as an offense so we're just going to run the QB sneak or we're just going to run some power down the middle or iso and really smash-mouth these people. They were kicking our (behind) up front.

''So, I was like, kick the field goal, take the points, man, 10-0 is a big score, especially with the weather report that it was going to get nasty in the second half."

Patrick brought up the trend of NFL coaches going for it on fourth down — they're 25 of 51 in the playoffs so far.

''It almost seems like you're a failure if you don't go for it on fourth down and you take the field goal and you leave four points out there," he said. "But I don't know if the data is able to show, well, who's my quarterback? Who am I going against? What are the conditions? What time of the game am I doing all of this stuff?''

Schlereth is old school; he hates the analytics that have become such a prominent part of the game.

McFarland also questioned Rams coach Sean McVay's decision to go for it with just under five minutes remaining on fourth-and-4 at the Seattle 6 with Los Angeles trailing 31-27 in the NFC championship. McFarland argued McVay should have sent out Harrison Mevis for a chip-shot field goal. Instead, Matthew Stafford threw incomplete and when the Rams got the ball back in the waning seconds, they needed a TD, not a field goal, to win.

Make it a one-point game and "now you put the pressure back on Seattle's offense,'' McFarland said. "And so now, if you're Seattle's offense, and if you go three-and-out or (the Rams) get a ball back, we don't need to drive for a touchdown. We've got a kicker that can kick a 50-yarder. And we're on turf, so we don't have to worry about the footing. And so now, the pressure goes back to Seattle's offense to keep the football.''

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