University of Virginia's Larry Sabato Thursday wrote that "conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer" and "likely voters" have "moved increasingly in the GOP direction."
The result, according to his analysis:
- "Given what we can see at this moment , Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net."
- "Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react)"
- "The statehouses will provide the third leg of the Republicans’ 2010 victory. ... We now believe they will win +8."
He also says the Minnesota 6th congressional race (between GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann and DFLer Tarryl Clark) will likely stay Republican and the Minnesota 1st congressional race (between Democratic Rep. Tim Walz and GOP state Rep. Randy Demmer) will likely stay in Democratic hands.
Sabato's less sure about the outcome of the Minnesota governor's race. That contest, he says, could go either way:
- "The 9 toss-ups for Governor are in California, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont—six currently held by GOP chief executives and three by Democrats."
Click here to see the multi-colored charts of his predictions.