Red River Valley, much of Minnesota, brace for flooding again

As the spring thaw gathers steam, the outlook for another major flood in the Red River Valley remains grim.

The National Weather Service updated its flood predictions Friday, two weeks after it reported that major flooding is a near-certainty along the Red, a year after record high water inundated the river basin.

And the forecast shows that floodwaters are likely to inundate much of Minnesota with the melting of one of the deepest, wettest snow covers in recent years.

High water is expected along the Minnesota and Mississippi river basins, including the likelihood of flooding in St. Paul.

The recent run of dry, storm-free weather has been good news.

It has reduced the probability of a record flood at Moorhead, for example, from about 25 percent to 18 percent, said Scott Dummer, hydrologist in charge of the weather service's North Central River Forecast Center, based in Chanhassen.

However, temperatures slightly cooler-than normal have preserved the snow cover. That snow continues to hold more than 6 inches of water in near the head of the Red, as well as 4 to 6 inches in much of the upper Minnesota River basin and 6 to 10 inches along the Iowa border, where water flows into the Des Moines River and ultimately the Mississippi.

"We still have a significant event on our hands," he said.

According to the weather service, major flooding is a near-certainty in Fargo and Moorhead, the most-heavily battered cities during last year's flood. There's a one-in-four chance that the river will reach last year's record crest, the weather service reported.

The probability of major flooding in Grand Forks and East Grand Forks, devastated by the flood of 1997, is just over 50 percent.

Elsewhere in Minnesota, there's a 70 percent likelihood of major flooding along the Mississippi in St. Paul; in Montevideo, the probability is more than 80 percent. Downstream along the Minnesota river into the Twin Cities suburbs, the likelihood is less.

Officials have said conditions are similar to the late-winter snowpack that led to significant spring flooding in 1965, 1997 and 2001, which produced some of the worst floods on record.

In Fargo and Moorhead, sandbags are being stockpiled.

On Wednesday, Gov. Tim Pawlenty asked the Army Corps of Engineers to provide Montevideo and Oakport Township in Clay County with technical and emergency operations assistance.

And the corps reported Thursday that it has begun to draw down water levels behind dams in the Minnesota River watershed, which will cause water levels to rise in the Bois De Sioux and Otter Tail rivers to rise in Breckenridge and Wahpeton. That could cause flooding during the next week to 10 days, the corps reported.