Memorial Weekend Outlook Includes Rain

 

As we head into the extended holiday weekend, we are unfortunately tracking shower and storm chances across the region. As we go into Saturday, we will be tracking a system approaching the region, bringing in the threat of rain - but it shouldn't be an all-day washout. Rainfall amounts generally will be under a quarter of an inch. Highs will mainly be in the 70s across the state, with temperatures staying in the 60s along the North Shore.

As another system moves into the region Sunday, shower and storm chances will once again increase, particularly into the afternoon and overnight hours. Highs across most of the state will once again be in the 70s, with some 80s across southern Minnesota into the Twin Cities and some 60s along the North Shore.

Models differ on how long rain will last into Monday across the state with the European keeping rain chances around all day, but the GFS pushes it out of most of the state in the morning hours. Highs for Memorial Day will be in the 70s across most of the state... again hanging in the 60s along portions of the North Shore.

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Severe Threat Memorial Weekend

Storms this weekend could be on the strong side across portions of the state. On Saturday, a Marginal Risk of severe weather is in place across portions of southwestern Minnesota. The best chance of stronger storms would be late in the day into the evening hours with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

A few of the storms on Sunday could be severe again across southwestern Minnesota with a Marginal Risk of severe weather in place. Large hail and damaging winds would once again be the greatest threats.

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Abnormally Dry Conditions Continue To Expand

While we have gotten our share of rain across southern Minnesota recently, areas to our north have been fairly dry... not only this month but for the year so far. The latest Drought Monitor - issued Thursday - now has abnormally dry conditions positioned over 51.46% of the state. The largest area stretches from west-central to northern portions of the state, including St. Cloud and Duluth. Other areas of abnormally dry conditions exist across far northwestern Minnesota and in portions of southeastern Minnesota. The National Drought Mitigation Center said, "There are several dry pockets in the region, and areas of Wisconsin, Minnesota and northeast Iowa all had abnormally dry conditions expand this week due to the dryness over the short-term."

Let's step backward through precipitation so far this year, starting with May. Heavier rain last weekend helped to elevate totals so far this month across southern Minnesota to over 3" in both the Twin Cities and Rochester. North of where the heaviest rain fell, most areas have observed less than an inch of rain this month, with many of those areas running over an inch below average.

As we look at precipitation since the beginning of meteorological spring, the only climate station across the state that is above average is the MSP Airport where 7.37" has fallen. As you head into areas that are in that abnormally dry area, Park Rapids is over 3" below average, with Duluth, Brainerd, and International Falls more than 2" below average.

When we look at 2020 so far, the larger area of abnormally dry conditions sticks out across portions of central and southern Minnesota, with Brainerd over 3" below average.

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Mild Front This Weekend. Hot Front Coming
By Paul Douglas


For the record, it is NOT OK to call 911 about a corona-mullet. It looks like someone tried to cut my hair with a cheese grater. My wife makes me wear a mask in bed, which isn't helping my self-esteem. Until there's a vaccine let's give each other more latitude - and grace. What works for you may not work for me, and that's alright.

The pandemic, coupled with natural disasters, is raising the specter of unimaginably complex hurricane evacuations later this summer. Chaos surrounding a recent 500-year flood in central Michigan was a preview of what may be to come.

An ill-timed, slow-motion frontal passage cooks up a stew of random showers and thundershowers today into Monday. Timing the rain is impossible, but I don't see any all-day washouts. Temperatures recover into the 70s, just mild enough for a dip in your favorite lake.

If you like it hot, stick around until next weekend. Both ECMWF and GFS hint at 80s, even low 90s, as we push into June. After several false starts, real heat is on the horizon. Really!

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Few showers likely. Wake up 61. High 73. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind E 7-12 mph.
SUNDAY: Peeks of sun, few T-storms. Wake up 61. High 79. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.
MONDAY: Unsettled, few showers & T-storms. Wake up 62. High 76. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, drying out. Wake up 58. High 69. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny and warmer. Wake up 57. High 80. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 7-12 mph.
THURSDAY: Warm sunshine, lake-worthy. Wake up 59. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Sticky, few T-storms up north. Wake up 63. High 85. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
May 23rd

1914: An early heat wave hits the state, with a high of 103 at Tracy.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
May 23rd

Average High: 71F (Record: 89F set in 2012)
Average Low: 51F (Record: 28F set in 1963)
Average Precipitation: 0.10" (Record: 1.56" set in 1975)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 23rd

Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:44 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 9 minutes and 2 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~1 minutes and 53 seconds

*When Do We Climb To 15.5 Hours Of Daylight? June 7th (15 hours, 30 minutes, and 29 seconds
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 5:30 AM: May 30th (6:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 9:00 PM: June 12th (9:00 PM)

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Twin Cities Weather Outlook

For Saturday in the Twin Cities, we'll again keep an eye on those shower and storm chances throughout the day. The better chance of rain will be during the morning and midday hours, with rain chances decreasing toward the evening. Highs will be in the mid-70s.

Dewpoints are also starting to creep up across the region. They'll be right around 60F on Saturday in the Twin Cities.

We'll be even warmer as we head into Sunday, with our first 80F of the year possible. This would be the latest first 80F since 2014 when the first 80F of the year also occurred on May 24th. Temperatures will cool back into the 70s for highs for Memorial Day and Tuesday before warming back into the 80s by the middle of next week.

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National Weather Forecast

Several areas of showers and storms will be possible Saturday across the central and eastern United States, with snow back toward the Northern Rockies. By the evening and overnight hours, a new system will start to approach the Pacific Northwest, bringing in some rain chances.

We'll watch shower and storm chances continue across the central United States as we head through the rest of the Memorial Day weekend. For Memorial Day Monday, dry weather can be expected across most of the Northeast and in many areas of the western United States.

As we look at potential precipitation through 7 PM Sunday, at least 2-4" of rain could fall across portions of the central and southern Plains. Meanwhile, up to 16" of snow could fall in portions of the northern Rockies.

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Muddy Flooding in Michigan

NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

More from NASA Earth Observatory: "On May 17, 2020, heavy rain began pouring over the Tri-Cities region of central Michigan and, after two days, it provoked significant flooding in Midland County. The accumulating rainfall led to catastrophic dam failures that swelled rivers and streams and inundated several nearby communities. The governor ordered more than 10,000 residents of Edenville and Sanford to evacuate. The natural-color images on this page show flooding across Midland County as observed by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8. The pair above shows the Tittabawassee River on May 20, 2020 (right), compared to June 3, 2019 (left). The images below provide a wider view, including the location of the Edenville and Sanford dams."

More than 80 killed in India and Bangladesh as Cyclone Amphan heaps misery on coronavirus-hit areas

More from CNN: "More than 80 people have been killed and thousands more left homeless after Cyclone Amphan slammed into coastal towns and cities in India and Bangladesh on Wednesday afternoon. Authorities are now racing to provide relief efforts in communities already stricken by the coronavirus, hampered in many areas by heavy rains and fallen debris that has made roads impassible. Large-scale evacuation efforts appear to have saved many lives, but it could take days to realize the full extent of the deaths, injuries and damage from the cyclone."

Baby exoplanet spotted growing around distant star

More from Space.com: "The European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope (VLT) in Chile has captured an image of a planet being born around the young star AB Aurigae, which lies 520 light-years from Earth in the constellation Auriga (The Charioteer). Like previous AB Aurigae images taken by the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), this new photo shows spiral arms forming in the thick disk of dust and gas surrounding the star. These spirals are evidence of newly forming worlds, which churn up protoplanetary disks, scientists have said."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Saturday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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