Parmelee's September to Remember

Its funny how small sample size success can frequently send a fan base atwitter.

True, Chris Parmelee posted one of baseball's best weighted On-Base Averages (wOBA) in the past month. He raked to the tune of .355/.443/.592 with four home runs and six doubles in just shy of a hundred plate appearances. And, all in all, it was one of the best September call-up performances in recent memory.

Still, it is difficult to project a player's true capabilities just based on a one-month sampling – even if you are combining it with his recent minor league track record.

To be sure, there is plenty to like about Parmelee's potential just based on his smattering of at bats this year:

These elements are solid building blocks for a fundamentally sound hitter. Additionally, Parmelee has also shown that he can make modifications too. Beginning two years ago, he axed his upper-cut swing in favor of a more leveled one. This yielded an almost immediate difference in his performance as he cut down on the amount of strikeouts and increased his line drive rate substantially:

Chris Parmelee (2008-2011)

Line Drive%

2008 – Beloit (A)

28.7%

19%

2009 – Ft Myers (HA)

16%

2010 – Ft Myers (HA)

11.8%

22%

2010 – New Britain (AA)

25%

2011 – New Britain (AA)

15.4%

23%

(via FirstInning.com)

One such extreme example is the Rangers' Taylor Teagarden.

In 2008, the catching prospect was having a middling season in the minors but received a September call-up. Prior to joining Texas, Teagarden hit .211/.319/.374 with nine home runs in 286 plate appearances split between AAA and AA. Yet when he reached the majors he had a monster of a month, hitting .341/.426/.829 with five home runs in 36 plate appearances. Following the '08 season, based on his late season performance, Teagarden's name was often cited by the Boston Red Sox as one of the potential targets to eventually replace the aging incumbent Jason Varitek. Instead, the Rangers opted to hang on to Teagarden - along with backstop partner Jarrod Saltalamacchia – only to be rewarded with a .205/.268/.356 line since then (and in a freakin' hitter's park, no less).

Teagarden's story is fairly consistent of what happens to a lot of hitters that have talent but do not demonstrate the ability to respond once the competition adjusts to them. In September '08, opponents fed Teagarden a steady stream of fastballs. Over 70% of his pitches were fastballs and the right-hander hit .407 on them resulting in an incredible value of 8.1 runs above average. Not surprising, the following season Teagarden saw fewer fastballs coming his way and, when he did get one, he was not able to do much with it. It got to the point where he was sent back to AA to figure it out.

Now, this is not to say that Teagarden's misfortunes will end with the same results for Parmelee, but it is a cautionary tale of how when given time to study, scouts can adapt quickly. As the Strib's Joe Christensen pointed out, teams will eventually find his soft spot:

As it stands right now, Parmelee's holes are so obvious it can be seen from space.

His ability to keep his hands in also hinders his ability to reach the outer-half of the plate. In the most basic terms, step one of the opposition's game plan would be to implement cutbacks on the amount of pitches thrown down in the zone and step two would be to feed him more fastballs up and out over the plate.

This doesn't necessarily mean that Parmelee will experience a collapse like Teagarden did – it simply means that he is less likely of getting "his pitch" (down in the zone) and more likely to get more of those up and out over the plate. As you can see in the chart below, teams already started to focus on that area of the zone. To his credit, Parmelee displayed an adept amount of patience on the majority of those pitches – recognizing it is better to not swing at the ones he knows he can't handle: