Nolen's absence hurts U's NCAA bid

Gophers basketball coach Tubby Smith can't answer the most pressing question about his program. Teammates aren't sure, either. And judging by his tweets, even starting point guard and defensive ace Al Nolen doesn't know whether he'll play for the Gophers again.

"No, there's no real word and it's hard to diagnose. He's getting the bone stem [treatment], they're doing everything they can," Smith said Monday about Nolen's recovery from a broken foot suffered during a Jan. 22 victory at Michigan. "The healing process is an unknown quantity. But he looks good. I think he's upbeat, and I think his mentality and our mentality is that he will get back ... in the postseason play; Big Ten tournament, hopefully."

The Gophers sit on the NCAA tournament bubble for the third consecutive season as they prepare to face Michigan State at Williams Arena on Tuesday. While the Gophers have lost five of their past six games, they finish the Big Ten regular season with three of their final four games at home.

But any slip-ups might demand a Big Ten tournament run, such as last season's rally to the title game, to salvage an at-large bid.

Nolen's indefinite absence could dismantle his team's dreams for two reasons: The Gophers are clearly a different squad without him (2-5), and the NCAA tournament selection committee tends to knock troubled teams that lose key players to season-ending injuries.

Instead of focusing on victories over North Carolina, West Virginia and Purdue -- all achieved with a healthy Nolen -- the 10-member assembly might use the late-season struggles as a snapshot of their NCAA tournament potential.

"Minnesota is trending badly down. A loss to Michigan State would knock them out," said ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi, who slotted the Gophers as a No. 12 seed in his Monday mock bracket. "The importance of Nolen is that it restores the maximum value of their big early wins [if he returns]."

Gaels star point guard Patrick Mills broke his wrist in late January, and the team lost three of its next four games. Mills returned in time for the West Coast Conference tournament, but his squad ended up in the NIT, despite cracking the national rankings for a chunk of the season.

Creighton had a similar experience in the 2005-06 season. Starting point guard Josh Dotzler suffered a season-ending knee injury that February. The Bluejays lost three of their next fives games without him and missed out on the NCAAs, even though they boasted a No. 36 RPI.

The Gophers own a No. 39 RPI and they're sputtering at the worst time. They can't count on any sympathy from the selection committee. NCAA tournament organizer Greg Shaheen said the group will analyze the difference between the team the Gophers were with Nolen and the one they've become without him.

"They'll be aware of those things, and talk about them, and they'll look at the games with certain student-athletes and without as the season breaks down," Shaheen said. "They have access to all that information. That's a great example of the kind of detail that they'll get into in the room, on any number of teams, and discuss what makes the most sense.

"How will they do it? They'll do it by making sure they're informed of those details and what the results were, or impact was, with or without any of the student-athletes."

If Nolen comes back, however, the selection committee might grant the Gophers more credit for their earlier success.

"Generally speaking, you have to earn your way in, injuries or no, but your seed might be affected positively by the return of an injured player," said Jerry Palm, creator of collegerpi.com.

Tubby Smith rarely engages in the bubble banter that enraptures the national college basketball scene in the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday, but he's aware of his team's situation. He said he hopes the selection committee gives his team credit for its efforts throughout the entire season.

"They'll take everything into consideration, but I would hope that they would look at the total body [of work]," he said. "Usually, you have to play better than we're playing now. We'll have to put together a string of good performances like we did last year in order to maybe put ourselves in a position ... to get us an opportunity to play in the NCAA tournament."

Junior forward/center Colton Iverson said the Gophers are preparing like a team that has to win the rest of its conference games to qualify for the tournament.