The committee that will select the NCAA Tournament field has zeroed in on a clear top tier of Duke, Arizona and Michigan.
Those three teams — now ranked 1-2-3 atop the AP Top 25 — have matching 25-2 records and a similar path for the week ahead: a Tuesday game against an opponent lower down the conference standings followed by a challenging test against a top-15 squad.
The Blue Devils, who pushed their record total of No. 1 appearances to 148 on Monday, visit Notre Dame before hosting No. 11 Virginia on Saturday in the Atlantic Coast Conference. In the Big 12, the second-ranked Wildcats visit Baylor before hosting No. 14 Kansas on Saturday.
And in the Big Ten, the Wolverines follow a home game against Minnesota with Friday's trip to No. 10 Illinois.
The committee had Michigan as its top overall seed in Saturday's reveal of the top 16 seeds for March Madness, followed by Duke and Arizona. But the Blue Devils beat the Wolverines and the Wildcats won at Houston later that day, shuffling the order in Monday's new AP poll.
No matter the order, selection committee chairman and Sun Belt commissioner Keith Gill pointed to that trio as having a clear separation from Iowa State, the fourth 1-seed in those preliminary rankings.
And those rankings generally experience only minor fluctuations by Selection Sunday. For example, 25 of the 32 teams (78.1%) to hold a No. 1 seed in the preliminary rankings since the debut show in 2017 ultimately secured a 1-seed for the NCAAs. That data excludes 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic forcing the cancellation of that year's tournament.
As of Monday afternoon, KenPom and Evan Miyakawa ranked the order as Michigan-Duke-Arizona, while Bart Torvik had it Michigan-Arizona-Duke.