Week 18 NFL picks: Did Matthew Stafford throw away the MVP award or was it Drake Maye’s all along?

Did 37-year-old Matthew Stafford literally throw away the NFL MVP in prime time in Week 17? Or does 23-year-old Drake Maye just deserve it a little bit more?

Stafford, who threw three interceptions including a pick-six in the Rams’ upset loss to Atlanta on Dec. 29, has a league-high 42 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. He faces the Cardinals at home on Jan. 4 with a chance to join Tom Brady (2007) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2020) as the only players in NFL history with 45 touchdown passes and fewer than 10 interceptions in a season.

Brady and Rodgers were named MVP the three years they did it. But …

Maye has the better record. His Patriots are 13-3, have won the AFC East and would claim a No. 1 seed with a win at home against Miami and a Denver loss at home against the Chargers.

Maye also leads the league in completion percentage (71.7%) and passer rating (112.9) and has 409 yards rushing and four touchdowns while Stafford has minus-2 yards rushing.

According to NextGen Stats, Maye also leads the league in passer rating on throws …

The Patriots do have the NFL’s weakest strength of schedule (.398) while the Rams have the third-toughest (.555). But Maye’s case did get stronger when Stafford wilted at the wrong time.

MVP dark horse Christian McCaffrey needs four catches to reach 100 for a third season when the 49ers play host to Seattle for the NFC West title and a No. 1 seed at 7 p.m. on Saturday, Jan. 3. No other running back in NFL history has more than one 100-catch season.

Cleveland’s Myles Garrett, who needs a sack at Cincinnati to break the NFL record of 22½ shared by Michael Strahan (2001) and T.J. Watt (2021), is trying to become the fourth NFL Defensive Player of the Year from a losing team in a non-strike year. The Browns are 4-12. The three who have done it are Cortez Kennedy with Seattle in 1992 (2-14), Strahan when he set the sack record with the Giants in 2001 (7-9), and Jason Taylor with Miami in 2006 (6-10). Vikings Hall of Famer Jared Allen finished second when he led the league in sacks with 22 on a 3-13 team in 2011.

Justin Jefferson’s professionalism this year demands that the Vikings feed him 53 yards receiving against the Packers. He needs that to join Mike Evans (11) and Randy Moss (6) as the only players with at least 1,000 yards in each of his first six seasons.

The Bears went from worst to first in the division. The NFL has had at least one team do that in 20 of the past 23 seasons. Heading into Week 18, New England also has done it, while San Francisco and Carolina still have a chance to give the NFL a record four worst-to-first teams in one season.

Carolina (8-8) needs a win at Tampa Bay (7-9) on Jan. 3 or an Atlanta win over New Orleans on Jan. 4 to win the NFC South. The Panthers, who beat the Bucs 23-20 two weeks ago, are 26th in scoring (18.6) and the only team in the bottom 13 still in the playoff picture. The Bucs, meanwhile, have been held to fewer than 21 points in five of their past six games (1-6).

Seahawks (-1½) at 49ers: Sam Darnold choked as a Viking with the No. 1 seed up for grabs a year ago. Per Vikings logic, Sam now wins as a Seahawk. Duh. Seahawks 33-30

Packers (+7½) at Vikings: What a great rivalry?! Except, of course, when it’s Week 18 and the playoff-bound Packers couldn’t care less. Vikings 24-16

Saints (+3½) at Falcons: Yeah, it seems like Atlanta will win. But Kirk Cousins is 15-14 in his past 29 games, so the only conclusion is he loses. Saints 28-24

Browns (+7½) at Bengals: Don’t know the details, but somewhere in next year’s first round is a great quarterback Cleveland won’t get because of this win. Browns 17-14

Titans (+13) at Jaguars: Cam Ward is one game from having 17 he’ll have to forget as Tennessee moves into Year 2 of messing up his career. Jaguars 34-20

Jets (+7) at Bills: Buffalo is only one game from knowing it won’t lose to Patrick Mahomes at some point in the postseason. Bills 30-12

Lions (+3) at Bears: Win and the Bears get to play Green Bay rather than lose to the Rams, 49ers or Seahawks next week. Bears 24-21

Chargers (+12½) at Broncos: When one team is trying to win and the other isn’t, go with the team that’s trying to win. Broncos 31-3

Chiefs (-5½) at Raiders: Never, ever pick against the team that needs a quarterback and one more loss to clinch the No. 1 overall draft pick. Chiefs 9-6

Cardinals (+7½) at Rams: Remember when Arizona was 2-0? Me neither. Rams 30-20

Dolphins (+10½) at Patriots: Mike McDaniels’ blunt-force remarks this week suggest Brian Flores is no longer the only coach Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t like. Patriots 34-21

Commanders (+4) at Eagles: Hey, Philly, You just won a second Super Bowl and you’re 6-0 when being held to fewer than 300 yards. Stop yer whining. Eagles 24-10

Ravens (-3)½ at Steelers: When in doubt, go with the home team and the franchise/coach that’s harder to eliminate than cockroaches. Steelers 23-20

Last week’s pick: Texans (+2½) 23, Chargers 19. Final: Texans 20, Chargers 16. Record: 7-9.

Last week/season straight up: 10-6/148-89.