NFL divisional round picks: Vikings had more in common with Seahawks, Broncos than you might think

The Vikings have a lot in common with Seattle and Denver, the two No. 1 seeds that will open their postseasons when the NFL’s divisional round playoff games begin Saturday, Jan. 17.

Unfortunately for the Vikings, the things they have in common with these two 14-3 teams is likely to cost them Brian Flores, the defensive coordinator who deserves one of the nine head coaching jobs that opened in a league whose impatience knows no limits, except in Pittsburgh, where Mike Tomlin pulled the plug on himself after 19 seasons.

Speaking of nine openings, let’s take a second to congratulate Kevin O’Connell. With a whopping four seasons as Vikings head coach, K.O. is now tied with Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles as the NFL’s ninth-longest tenured coach. Old man Sean McVay, who turns 40 on Jan. 24, is tied for second at nine seasons behind Andy Reid (13).

Now back to what the 9-8 and non-playoff-qualifying Vikings had in common with Denver and Seattle, which play host to No. 6 seeds Buffalo and San Francisco, respectively, on Jan. 17.

In some of the most essential areas defensively, the Vikings are right there with the Broncos and Seahawks.

Points allowed?

Seattle is first (17.2), Denver third (18.3) and the Vikings seventh (19.6).

Denver is second (278.2), the Vikings third (282.6).

Sacks per pass play?

Denver is first (11.47%), the Vikings second (10.96%).

Third-down percentage?

Seattle is first (32.05), Denver second (33.76), the Vikings third (34.53).

Denver is first (42.55%), the Vikings second (42.86%).

Where the Vikings differed significantly was run defense. And it contributed to Minnesota falling short of the 10 wins it needed to reach the playoffs.

Against the run, Denver was second (91.1), Seattle third (91.9) and the Vikings 21st (124.1).

A look at the top two seeds also shows us that, despite the public’s unending obsession with quarterbacks, great quarterback play is not the only path to the top of what remains the greatest team game there is.

Would the Vikings have done better with Seattle’s Sam Darnold or Denver’s Bo Nix — two guys they passed on in favor of J.J. McCarthy — playing quarterback?

Are Darnold and Nix the primary reasons their teams earned the top seeds?

No.

They went a combined 10-1 when throwing for fewer than 200 yards.

Darnold ranked 11th in passer rating (99.1) among quarterbacks who played at least five games, Nix 26th (87.8).

Darnold threw 14 interceptions, third-most in the NFL. Nix threw 11, tied for seventh-most.

Nix beat Houston 18-15 on a day when he had more incompletions (19) than completions (18).

Darnold beat the Vikings when he threw for a season-low 128 yards and a 67.5 passer rating.

Nix had a league-high seven game-winning drives, but he also went 5-0 when he had passer ratings below 79, including 60.0 against the Titans and 54.2 against the Raiders.

So, yeah. Quarterbacks are, of course, important. Everyone knows that. You can’t win consistently without a good one.

But …

No. 6 Bills (13-5) at No. 1 Broncos (14-3)

Jan. 17, 3:30 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+, NFL+)

Line: Broncos by 1½

The matchup: The Bills ran for 210 yards in a 31-7 win over the Broncos in last year’s wild-card game at Buffalo. This year, Denver counters Buffalo’s No. 1-ranked rushing attack (159.6 yards per game) with the No. 2-ranked run defense (91.1 yards allowed per game). The Bills were held to 79 yards rushing in last week’s win at Jacksonville, Buffalo’s first road playoff win in 33 years.

Key stat: Denver’s league-high 68 sacks and league-low 23 sacks allowed adds up to a NFL-record plus-45 sack differential, surpassing the 1977 Patriots (plus-44).

No. 6 49ers (13-5) at No. 1 Seahawks (14-3)

Jan. 17, 7 p.m. (FOX, NFL+)

Line: Seahawks by 7

The matchup: The 49ers won 17-13 at Seattle in Week 1 and Seattle won 13-3 at San Francisco in Week 18. Darnold didn’t top 200 yards passing in either game and had no touchdowns or interceptions. The 49ers’ Brock Purdy threw three picks and two touchdowns in the two meetings and was held to 127 yards in the Week 18 loss.

Key stat: The 49ers have won seven consecutive divisional playoff games, the last two with Purdy as their starter.

No. 5 Texans (13-5) at No. 2 Patriots (15-3)

Jan. 18, 2 p.m. (ABC, ESPN, NFL+)

Line: Patriots by 3

The matchup: Lovers of defense, enjoy. In their wild-card wins, Houston and New England sacked Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert 10 times while holding them to three field goals in 21 possessions, three third-down conversions in 24 tries (12.5%) and 382 yards.

Key stat: Drake Maye ran 10 times for 66 yards (6.6) in last week’s win over the Chargers. That’s an element of QB play the Texans didn’t have to prepare for in facing Rodgers last week.

No. 5 Rams (13-5) at No. 2 Bears (12-6)

Jan. 18, 5:30 p.m. (NBC, Peacock, NFL+)

Line: Rams by 3½

The matchup: Scoring shouldn’t be a problem. To reach this round, these teams combined for 39 fourth-quarter points while rallying to win in the final two minutes. Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams posted a combined 856 yards and 65 points.

Key stat: Last week’s 31-27 wild-card win over the Packers was the Bears’ first win while losing the turnover battle (2-0) this season. First in turnover differential during the regular season (plus-22), Chicago is tied for last in the postseason (minus-2).

Last week straight up: 4-2