Going back to 2022, when veteran Kirk Cousins was still the Vikings’ quarterback and Kevin O’Connell was in his first year as head coach, a theme emerged with the team’s passing attack:
O’Connell often encouraged Cousins to be more aggressive instead of progressing through his reads to safer options with less upside. Finding the right balance was essential to getting the sorts of chunk plays O’Connell’s passing offense needs.
Cousins was starting to play at a high level in 2023 before his season-ending injury midway through the year ended his time in Minnesota.
Sam Darnold came in last year and thrived in O’Connell’s offense because he had the arm and mentality to make big plays without taking too many risks.
Numbers indicate that O’Connell wanted J.J. McCarthy to continue running a high-upside, acceptable-risk style of offense this season. But through his first six starts, with an ankle injury and then a concussion mixed in, McCarthy was a high-reward, high-risk QB.
His past two starts, however, reveal the sort of QB that O’Connell must have envisioned when the Vikings chose McCarthy No. 10 overall in 2024. I talked about that on Wednesday’s Daily Delivery podcast.
Let’s talk more about it at the start of today’s 10 things to know:
- More conventional stats certainly tell us that McCarthy has played his best two games as a pro since returning to the lineup from his one-week concussion absence. He’s thrown five touchdowns with one interception against Washington and Dallas with passer ratings well over 100 in both victories.
- But two numbers I like even more come from Pro Football Focus. The first is called “big-time throw percentage.” What qualifies as a “big-time throw” is a bit subjective, with PFF defining it as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” McCarthy has been at or near the top of the NFL all season in that category, showing that he is capable of spectacular plays. His BTT% currently is 7.2% of all throws, tying him with Rams QB Matthew Stafford for the NFL lead.
- Through his first six starts, however, McCarthy coupled those big-time throws with what are classified as “turnover-worthy plays,” defined by PFF as “a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.” He had 11 big-time throws but 12 turnover-worthy plays his first six starts. That’s too much risk for the reward, and the Vikings suffered as a result.
- In his past two starts, though, McCarthy has made five big-time throws among his 47 attempts while being tagged with zero turnover-worthy plays. Yes, he did have one interception against Dallas, but that was a tipped ball that seems to have been deemed more unlucky than dangerous.
- It is essential that McCarthy is allowed to take shots downfield and that he does so. It’s one of his strengths, and a big part of O’Connell’s offense. Can he sustain the ability to make those plays while keeping the ball safe over the final three games of the year? The answer will tell us a lot about what the Vikings’ QB plan should be in 2026 and beyond.
- We know the Vikings’ kicking plan in 2026: Will Reichard. Fun quote from him at the end of that link about the London kicking controversy.
- The Twins on Wednesday announced their long-awaited limited partnership groups. Perhaps the bigger news is that Tom Pohlad is replacing Joe Pohlad as the team’s top executive.
- The Wild swung for the fences with Quinn Hughes and so far it is paying off. They beat Washington 5-0 on Tuesday and their Stanley Cup prospects are brighter than ever.
- La Velle E. Neal III and I talked about the Vikings, Wild and Timberwolves on Wednesday’s podcast.
- Marcus Fuller is expected to join me on Thursday to talk about his excellent Strib Varsity story about a 17-year-old basketball referee.
