Another Cool Start

It was another cool start Sunday morning across Minnesota, with many areas dipping into the 20s and 30s. MSP airport got down to 40F.


Latest First 40F Or Below Low On Record

Meanwhile, Saturday morning was the first morning so far this season that had the low dip to at least 40F at MSP as the low got down to 38F.

That was the latest first 40F (or below) low on record for MSP, the previous latest being October 14, 2015. Out of the top ten spots, five of those have occurred within the past ten years.

Meanwhile, that also means that we haven't seen a frost yet in the metro, going off the basis that Frost Advisories are typically issued for lows of 33-36F. Only seven times has the first "frost" (low at/sub-36F) occurred after October 17th, and the lastest on record occurred on November 1, 1931. Most recently, the first frost in 2015 occurred on October 16, and in 2013 it occurred on October 19th. Last year? It was on October 4th.


Warm Lake Superior Temperatures


Monday Weather Outlook

Mild autumn temperatures await the metro area on Monday, with morning lows not as cool as they have been the past few days and highs topping off in the mid-70s.

Blue, sunny skies are expected across much of the state as we head through Monday with the best chance of a few afternoon clouds along portions of the North Shore and in northwestern areas. Highs will be quite above average, ranging from 10-20F degrees above average in the 60s and 70s.


Temperature Trend This Week

While we will see a warm start to the week with highs in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, a change back toward cooler weather works in during the middle of the week. This will be due to a system that ushers in showers for Wednesday as well as that cooler air. By Thursday and Friday highs will be a lot closer to average (even below average) in the low to mid-50s.


Fall Color Update

A lot of Minnesota is now at or past peak when it comes to fall colors according to the Minnesota DNR. The best odds of finding some color still approaching peak is within the metro and across far southern portions of the state. You can follow the MN DNR Fall Color Finder throughout the fall color season by clicking here.


Mild Autumn Weather To Begin The Week
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

When we get to the fall season, I look forward to the cooler conditions to get out and do some hiking and camping. That means I have really been enjoying some of the cooler days we've had recently, versus the warm start we've had to autumn! Overall, since September 1st, we are tied for the warmest start to meteorological autumn on record at MSP.

The warmer weather has also prevented a frost for the Twin Cities (typical Frost Advisory criteria is 33-36F). So far, the coolest low was 38F which occurred Saturday. Looking back at history, the latest first low of 36F or below at MSP was November 1, 1931, but that first low at/sub-36F for the season has only occurred seven times on or after October 18th. Saturday also marked the latest first low of at least 40F on record for MSP.

Milder fall weather returns for the beginning of the week, with highs in the 70s Monday and Tuesday. A rainy system Wednesday helps drive cooler air back in late this week into the weekend and potentially the first frost of the season for the metro.


D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Warm with blue skies. Wake up 46. High 74. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: A few early morning and evening clouds. Wake up 53. High 71. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Scattered showers. Wake up 53. High 64. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Cooler. More clouds than sun. Wake up 43. High 54. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Quickly decreasing clouds. Sunny PM. Wake up 38. High 52. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 3-8 mph.

SATURDAY: Clouds thicken late in the day. Wake up 36. High 54. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. A few showers? Wake up 41. High 55. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 18th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 49 minutes, and 21 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 0 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight? October 25th (10 hours, 28 minutes, and 41 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before Time Change: November 6th (7:58 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 6:00 PM?: November 1st (6:00 PM)


This Day in Weather History
October 18th

1950: Record high temperatures are set across the area as highs reached the mid to upper 80s. Minneapolis and Farmington saw highs of 87 degrees Fahrenheit, while Albert Lea reached 86 degrees.

1916: A blizzard impacts Minnesota. A sharp temperature drop begins as well; Hallock drops from the 60s to 2 above by the 20th.


National Weather Forecast

The main system on Monday will be out in the western United States, producing areas of rain and snow. A few showers will be possible with a trough of low pressure in the Northeast.

We will be watching areas of rain through the first part of the week in portions of the western and northeastern United States, but rainfall amounts, for the most part, will remain under 3". The heaviest snow will fall across portions of Wyoming, where up to two feet will be possible in some locations.


Biden's Clean Energy Initiative May Get Left on the Cutting Room Floor

More from Gizmodo: "Democratic lawmakers may have to scrap the most aggressive emissions-reduction initiative in American history from their massive budget bill. Senators Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have told President Joe Biden they refuse to support his climate agenda, forcing negotiations for the $3.5 trillion Build Back Better bill to a halt, people familiar with the matter said in interviews with the New York Times and the Washington Post. "We're getting down to the hard spot here," Biden told reporters Friday in reference to ongoing negotiations, the Associated Press reports. "We're at this stalemate at the moment." "It's just going to take some time," he continued, warning that this political back-and-forth could very well drag on to the end of the year."

Expansion of wind and solar power too slow to stop climate change

More from Chalmers University of Technology: "The production of renewable energy is increasing every year. But after analysing the growth rates of wind and solar power in 60 countries, researchers at Chalmers, Lund University and Central European University in Vienna, Austria conclude that virtually no country is moving sufficiently fast to avoid global warming of 1.5°C or even 2°C. "This is the first time that the maximum growth rate in individual countries has been accurately measured, and it shows the enormous scale of the challenge of replacing traditional energy sources with renewables, as well as the need to explore diverse technologies and scenarios", says Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor in Energy Transitions at Chalmers University of Technology."

Concordia researchers develop a new model to assess for flood hazards

More from Concordia University: "The widespread flooding that submerged parts of the province's most densely populated regions in 2017 and 2019 exposed important gaps in Quebec's flood preparedness regime. With thousands of people displaced and hundreds of millions of dollars worth of damages incurred, the disasters spurred urgent re-investment in the aging system. A new paper led by Concordia researchers outlines how advanced technology and recently available data is helping that effort. The article is published in the journal Hydrological Processes. In it, lead author and research associate Guénolé Choné and Pascale Biron, professor in the Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, present a new methodology to create a watershed-scale flood model based on LiDAR data."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser