This will not be Sabermetric. This will be instinctive and estimated. But it will be an attempt to quantify, as ridiculous as it might sound, where the blame/explanation for the Twins' 9-15 start rests. While all of these things have no doubt worked in concert with one another, here are the issues if we are going to prioritize them:
Offense: 25 percent. Quite simply, it's been dismal pretty much all season, with one game excepted (the double-digit outburst against Cleveland, the only time the Twins have scored more than five runs in a game) and a couple players excused (Denard Span and to a greater extent Jason Kubel). That's it. Everyone else has been subpar. The Twins are near the bottom in every offensive category in the AL. If you can't hit -- and this is a massive, nearly team-wide slump that has lasted more than one-seventh of the season -- you can't win.
Starting pitching: 20 percent. A supposed area of stability -- not dominance, but at least stability -- has been anything but that. Twins starters have a 5.18 ERA as a group and have delivered quality starts in just 10 of 24 outings (6 IP+, 3 ER or less). Francisco Liriano has been abysmal. Carl Pavano has been inconsistent. Nick Blackburn has been getting shelled lately. Not good.
Injuries/illness: 20 percent. Losing Tsuyoshi Nishioka early on was tough. Joe Mauer and Delmon Young have since gone on the DL. Justin Morneau missed some games. Jim Thome is ailing now. No doubt, that's a lot of muscle to be doing without. That said, none of those players has lit it up when healthy. And some of the time they've missed can be reasonably criticized by ...
Culture/manager: 15 percent. We might even be inclined to swap the percentages on this and injuries. But we'll leave it as is for now. Even so, we can't shake the feeling that 1) the Twins (and some players specifically) were complacent coming out of spring training and weren't ready for the season to start, 2) Players too often tell Ron Gardenhire if they can play, rather than the other way around and 3) There is nobody around to light the proverbial fire right now. Michael Cuddyer might try, and he means well. But he's not a [redacted]-kicker. He cares plenty, but he can't fill that void.
Offseason moves: 10 percent. The front office basically stood pat and did very little to upgrade the roster or address the team's depth. You can forgive that somewhat since this was a division-winning team in 2010. But the holes have been pretty glaring with the early run of stricken players.
Bullpen: 10 percent. It hasn't been the problem some predicted, but between the blown saves and the middle inning adventures, the relievers (and their 4.48 ERA) haven't exactly been an asset).
Honorable mention: Defense -- we can quibble about range and some specific plays, but overall it's at least been adequate and hardly chief among the problems. Baserunning -- Adventures at third notwithstanding, there are bigger fish to fry.
