Michigan State leads Big Ten caravan into NCAA tournament

INDIANAPOLIS – The narrative almost changed in that last second.

Michigan State, playing the role of new conference favorite in the weeks ahead, suddenly looked as vulnerable as anyone. Missed shots, turnovers and — as Denzel Valentine shouted in a broadcast interview immediately afterward — "dumb mistakes" handed Maryland several chances late in the semifinals of the Big Ten men's basketball tournament on Saturday.

Then, with the 64-61 win firmly in hand with 0.8 seconds on the clock, Eron Harris decided to stand mind-bogglingly close to a Hail Mary-launching Melo Trimble, and appeared to foul him as the buzzer sounded while Spartans coach Tom Izzo buried his face in his hands on the sideline.

"We were supposed to lose that game," Valentine, still panting, told TV reporters.

It wasn't called. Michigan State stayed alive for Sunday's final against Purdue and held on to its perch as the league's best chance to make waves in the NCAA tournament, which begins Tuesday.

When the bracket is announced Sunday night, the Spartans — who could be a No. 1 seed — likely will be joined by as many as six other Big Ten teams. Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, Iowa and Wisconsin look like locks with Michigan sitting firmly on the bubble.

That much just about ends what we know — or think we know — about the Big Ten moving forward.

Indiana — the outright regular-season title winner — along with blazing hot Wisconsin and previous favorite Iowa all went down in flames in their first game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. An Illinois team that was one of the league's worst all year won two games and then got pounded by 31 points. Michigan nearly got upset by Northwestern on Thursday, but then pulled off an upset of its own on Friday when it topped the Hoosiers with a buzzer-beating three-pointer from a little-used scrap shooter, potentially playing itself into the Big Dance.

Then on Saturday, Michigan State's normally steady presence disappeared in big moments down the stretch. There were a couple of critical stops — including an acrobatic just-at-the-peak block from Deyonta Davis — but there were also many times that the Spartans tried to hand the game away.

Still, it's hard not to look at the Spartans as the overwhelming league power at this stage of the season, especially considering the weaknesses that are obvious elsewhere.

There's Iowa, on the verge of an astonishing collapse a la 2014 after dropping five of its past six games. Indiana could go to the Final Four on its shooting — but could just as easily die by lack of it as the Hoosiers did vs. Michigan.

Purdue could win the tournament net on Sunday, but the Boilermakers — far from flawless away from home this year — have the benefit of what has essentially been a home-court advantage 70 miles down I-65 from West Lafayette.

Wisconsin looked like it might be primed to repeat a run to the NCAA championship game after operating like the hottest team in the league down the stretch. But that was before the Badgers dropped their regular-season finale at Purdue, and resembled only a shadow of the turnaround darling that reeled off 11 wins in 12 games when they lost badly to Nebraska on Thursday.

The Spartans, meanwhile, have been by far the most consistent team since late January, boasting one of Izzo's most mesmerizing teams, one of the nation's most efficient offenses and the face-saving formula of clutch defense, killer instinct and a guy (Valentine) who just makes things happen on otherwise off nights.

Michigan State showed again Saturday that it's not perfect, but the Spartans have been pretty darn good. Thus far they have survived the league's utter chaos, and that bodes well for the battles that lie ahead.