Doppler Radar at 10:43 am.
Beware the Ides of March. No kidding, Paul. Average March snowfall in the Twin Cities is about 10", which won't be too hard to believe today, especially if you live south and west of Minneapolis and St. Paul.
- Snow becomes heavier into midday and afternoon as a band of snow and sleet spreads slowly north and east across the metro area.
- Ice pellets (sleet) may mix in with the snow at times. Temperatures through the evening hours will hover between 30-32F, so cold enough to accumulate, even on freeways.Expect a sharp gradient in snowfall totals, with the best chance of 5-7" over far southern and western suburbs by late tonight - the best chance of a half foot of slush will come from Waconia and Shakopee to Faribault and Rochester.
- Dry air will limit how far and east the heaviest snowfall totals extend: suburbs north and east of St. Paul may only pick up a couple inches of slushy snow.
The Twin Cities National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings for counties just south and west of the immediate metro, including Scott and Carver counties. The farther south and west you travel into the afternoon and evening hours, the worse road conditions will be. Advisories are posted for much of the metro area, with snow amounts by tonight in the 2-4" range.
A Slushy Mess. Travel is already slow south and west of the Twin Cities, and conditions will deteriorate as the afternoon goes on - snow mixing with ice pellets (sleet) at times. For the latest travel conditions from MnDOT click here.
High-Resolution NOAA NAM Model. The latest 12z prediction calls for 4-7" southern and western suburbs, with 1-3" far eastern and northern suburbs of MSP. Great fun.
HopWRF Solution. All the models we examine show heaviest snowfall totals south and west of MSP, but the latest 3km NAM solution shows some 6" totals for immediate southern and western suburbs with considerably less north and east of Stillwater, where totals may be in the 1-2" range.
Hope Runs Eternal. Spring is always two steps forward, one step back. Exhibit A: this week. After a snowy, wintry Monday temperatures will quickly moderate as the week goes on. Believe it or not a higher sun angle in mid-March means most of the snow in your yard will be gone by Wednesday or Thursday. ECMWF (European model) predicts 50F by the end of the week, even a shot at 60F by Sunday. Yes please.
This too shall pass, but today will be a poignant (and slushy) reminder that Minnesotans earn their springs...