Heavy Rain Saturday & Saturday Night

Storms late Saturday into Saturday Night produced heavy rainfall across portions of the state, particularly in western/northwestern areas, where radar estimated over 3" in some locations. Ortonville officially picked up 3.20" of rain with 2.15" in Eveleth and 2.07" in Alexandria. MSP Airport officially saw a Trace.


Tying Record Warm In La Crosse


Monday Weather Outlook

A fairly cloudy Monday is expected in the Twin Cities as another system passes off to our east. It could bring areas mainly east of I-35 the chance of a shower late in the day or into the overnight hours, but we should remain mainly dry in the Twin Cities. Morning temperatures will start off in the mid-50s before climbing to the mid-60s.

While a system passes off to our east Monday, a spare shower or two can't be ruled out across portions of eastern Minnesota. That system will help keep clouds in place across eastern Minnesota, while western areas of the state should see sunnier skies. Highs will mainly be in the 60s across the state Monday - still up to 10F degrees above average in some locations.


Temperature Trend This Week

While highs will be cooler than what we saw last week - when every day reached the 70s - through at least mid-week highs will be in the 60s, which is still several degrees above average. A strong system mid-week will bring another batch of cooler air down into the state for the latter part of the week and into next week, with highs much closer to average by Thursday and Friday.


Strong Mid-Week System

Another storm looms as we head into the middle of the week, bringing the potential of heavy rain and strong winds to the region Wednesday and Wednesday Night. At least this still be in the form of rain, while portions of the Rockies see their first major widespread snow of the season.

A widespread half an inch to inch of rain is expected to fall across the state with this system from Wednesday through Thursday, with the heaviest totals (1"+ possible) expected in northwestern Minnesota.

This system will also produce strong, gusty winds across the region as we head through Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Gusts could approach 40 mph in the Twin Cities late Wednesday into Wednesday evening.


Fall Color Update

Many state parks up in northern Minnesota are reporting that fall colors are either at or past peak, with colors quickly approaching peak across southern Minnesota. We'll have to see how many of these leaves hang on with the windy conditions expected later this week! You can follow the MN DNR Fall Color Finder throughout the fall color season by clicking here.

Drizzle Today With a Wednesday Soaking

By Paul Douglas

Stan had a question after a recent weather and climate talk in Elk River. "Paul, how are we going to unite as a nation if we can't even agree on what is real? Whether it's election results, a deadly virus or climate change, if we can't agree on facts, how do we move forward?" I wish I knew. Nurturing critical thinking skills, appreciating the difference between wild conspiracy theories and news from trusted sources? The future becomes murky and unmanageable if we can't even agree on the present.

Meteorologists can rely on data, observations and models - or a Ouija Board, Farmer's Almanac and Aunt Gertrude's raging bunions to predict the weather. No thanks.

A storm pushing into Wisconsin may brush eastern Minnesota with a little light rain or drizzle later today. Skies may brighten Tuesday before a more impressive storm spreads rain and gusty winds across the state Wednesday. The weekend looks cool and dry. I see no first-frost for the metro, in fact NOAA's models hint at more 70s in 10-14 days. We'll see.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Light rain or drizzle east. Wake up 52. High 63. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind N 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, drying out. Wake up 55. High 67. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Windy with rain, heavy at times. Wake up 56. High 64. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SE 20-45 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy, gusty and cool. Wake up 52. High 60. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: More clouds than sunshine. Wake up 47. High 56. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY: Cool sunshine. Wake up 43. High 59. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Plenty of sunshine, seasonable. Wake up 42. High 60. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 11th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 10 minutes, and 33 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 3 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight? October 15th (10 hours, 58 minutes, and 23 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 6:30 PM?: October 14th (6:29 PM)


This Day in Weather History
October 11th

1909: A snowstorm hits the state, along with temperatures dropping to 7 degrees over northern MN.


National Weather Forecast

An area of low pressure and associated fronts will continue to produce showers and storms Monday from the Great Lakes south to the western Gulf Coast. The other main story is a system out in the Great Basin, producing the first widespread winter storm of the season for portions of the Rockies. This system will also produce a critical fire danger across the California Central Valley.

From Sunday to Tuesday the heaviest rain will fall across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, where at least 3" of rain will be possible. Out across portions of Montana and Wyoming at least 1-2 feet of snow will be possible.

Here's a closer look at those expected snowfall tallies out west through 7 PM Tuesday. While areas like Billings and Casper could see at least 4" of snow, the higher amounts of 1-2 feet (or more) will be found up in the mountains.


6 Aspects of American Life Threatened by Climate Change

More from the New York Times: "Less food. More traffic accidents. Extreme weather hitting nuclear waste sites. Migrants rushing toward the United States, fleeing even worse calamity in their own countries. Those scenarios, once the stuff of dystopian fiction, are now driving American policymaking. Under orders from President Biden, top officials at every government agency have spent months considering the top climate threats their agencies face, and how to cope with them."

Keeping it clean and cool

More from the University of British Columbia: "The summer of 2021 in Western Canada was one of the hottest on record. In BC alone, 59 weather stations registered their hottest temperatures ever on June 27. For those lucky enough to have air conditioners, keeping their homes cool during the heat dome was relatively easy. However, the comfort lasted only until the utility bills arrived. As a result of heatwaves around the world, global electricity demand increased by five per cent so far in 2021 and it is expected to continue to increase annually, says UBCO researcher Dr. Mohammad Al Hashmi. ... Using data from Saudi Arabia, Dr. Al Hashmi developed a framework for reducing energy consumption related to residential buildings. The operational framework looks at methods to keep homes cool with minimum adverse environmental impacts."

Record-Breaking Texas Drought More Severe Than Previously Thought

More from UT News: "In 2011, Texas experienced one of its worst droughts ever. The dry, parched conditions caused over $7 billion in crop and livestock losses, sparked wildfires, pushed power grids to the limit, and reduced reservoirs to dangerously low levels. And according to a recent study led by geoscientists at The University of Texas at Austin, the drought was worse than previously thought. The study, published in the Journal of Hydrology, incorporated additional soil moisture-related data from gravity and microwave sensors on satellites into a land surface model used by scientists to determine the severity of droughts. According to the updated model simulation, severe drought was more widespread and longer lasting than judged by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), which is the current standard for designating drought across the United States."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser