Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki's MLB deal could spur chaos in Latin America. Here's why

NEW YORK — Roki Sasaki can sign with Major League Baseball teams during a nine-day window starting Wednesday, an unusual free agency with ripple effects for Latin American teenagers whose unofficial agreements worth millions are on hold pending his decision.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are considered the favorites to sign Sasaki, with the Toronto Blue Jays another contender.

A prized 23-year-old right-hander, Sasaki could have gotten a nine-figure major league deal if he remained healthy and waited until after the 2026 season to be posted by his Japanese club and join MLB. Yoshinobu Yamamoto followed that route and signed a $325 million, 10-year contract with the Dodgers in December 2023, a record total for a pitcher.

Because Sasaki is under 25 and has not played six seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, he is classified as an international amateur by MLB. That means he's limited to a minor league contract, subject to strict spending caps put in place by MLB and the players' association. The system was introduced in 2012 via collective bargaining, and a hard cap on spending was added in 2017.

Why will Roki Sasaki's contract impact Latin American teenagers?

Players residing outside of the 50 U.S. states, Puerto Rico and Canada are grouped together for baseball's international amateur free agency system, and Sasaki joins the 2025 group composed mostly of 16-year-olds — specifically players born between Sept. 1, 2007, and Aug. 31, 2008. The signing period opens Wednesday morning.

Sasaki has a limited window to sign with an MLB team because of a separate 45-day posting window mandated by the MLB-NPB agreement. That means he must sign by 5 p.m. EST on Jan. 23, or his rights will remain with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan's Pacific League.

The 2025 class can't officially sign contracts until Wednesday, but handshake agreements are common in places like the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Venezuela — in some cases, agreements struck years ago with players as young as 14 promising millions to kids from poor backgrounds.

Each team's bonus pool ranges from roughly $5.1 to $7.6 million. Landing Sasaki could take every penny — and almost certainly would force a team to back out of handshake agreements to free up space from its bonus pool. For those dumped players, finding another suitor could be challenging since other teams also presumably have handshake agreements for huge percentages of their pools.

Last year, 290 contracts were finalized the day the window opened. Clubs appear to be holding off on some agreements this year to save space for pursuit of Sasaki and may attempt to delay deals until 2026. Players could also change their plans preemptively. Baseball America reported Dominican shortstop Darell Morel will sign with Pittsburgh rather than the Dodgers.

What are the bonus pools?

Each team has a capped pool it can spend on international amateur free agents yearly, with amounts determined by the major league team's record the previous year, spending on top free agents and other factors.

Six clubs have around $6.9 million: Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Twelve teams have around $6.3 million: Atlanta, Boston, the Chicago Cubs and White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels, the New York Mets and Yankees, Philadelphia, San Diego, Texas, Toronto and Washington. Houston and St. Louis have around $5.6 million, and the Dodgers and San Francisco are at the low end with $5.1 million.

Starting Wednesday, teams may make trades to increase their signing bonus allotment by up to 60% from their initial figure. The allotment traded must be in $250,000 increments, with an exception that a team can deal its entire remaining allotment in a single swap.

Why would a team spend its full allotment on Sasaki?

Sasaki is an elite talent who already is proven at a high-level professional league and in international tournaments. If he was a professional free agent, he could earn hundreds of millions. But as it was for Shohei Ohtani in 2017, playing at the highest level is more important to Sasaki than maximizing his first MLB contract.

Pitching with Statcast tracking in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Sasaki threw 21 of 66 pitches over 100 mph in his group-stage start against the Czech Republic, topping out at 101.9 mph.

Sasaki was 10-5 with a 2.35 ERA in 18 games last year, striking out 129 hitters in 111 innings in a season limited by shoulder inflammation and was 7-4 with a 1.78 ERA in 15 starts in 2023, when he had an oblique injury. He has a 29-15 career record with a 2.10 ERA over four seasons with the Marines and pitched a perfect game against Orix in April 2022.

If Sasaki is selected to a major league roster for the 2025 season, which is likely, he would earn the $760,000 minimum while in the big leagues. He could become eligible for arbitration after the 2027 season and free agency after the 2030 season.

Because of the posting system, the Marines will receive a relatively small release fee: an amount equal to 25% of Sasaki's signing bonus. Ohtani went through a similar system when he signed with the Los Angeles Angels for a $2.315 million bonus ahead of the 2018 season.

Coming over early worked out well for Ohtani

Sacrificing money in favor of an earlier MLB start, Ohtani had salaries of $545,000, $650,000 and $259,259 (in pandemic-shortened 2020) during his first three seasons. He earned $3 million, $5.5 million and $30 million in his three years of arbitration eligibility and then agreed to a record $700 million, 10-year contract with the Dodgers ahead of the 2024 season.