When last month’s jobs report showed unexpected weakness in the labor market, President Donald Trump fired the head of the agency that produces the data and named a loyalist to run the department that produces those numbers.
That prompted a natural question ahead of Friday’s jobs report: Can this month’s numbers be trusted?
The answer, according to economists and experts in government statistics, is yes — but with all the same caveats that always apply to the data.
Economists across the political spectrum have criticized Trump’s decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, and his choice to replace her. The president tapped E.J. Antoni, a conservative economist with a history of distorting statistics to support his political arguments.
Antoni has not yet been confirmed by the Senate — Trump didn’t even formally nominate him for the position until Wednesday — so he isn’t yet in charge of the agency. In the meantime, it is being run by its deputy commissioner, William J. Wiatrowski, who served as acting commissioner twice before.
Erica Groshen, who led the bureau under President Barack Obama, described Wiatrowski as a “BLS lifer” who is committed to the agency’s mission of producing statistics that are free of political influence. She and others who know him said they were confident that he would speak up — or resign — rather than allow anyone to interfere improperly in the agency’s work.
In any case, Groshen and other experts said, even a commissioner with ill intentions would not be able to meddle with the data, at least not in the short run and not without anyone’s noticing. The monthly jobs report is produced on a tight schedule using a highly automated and decentralized process. Most of the data that underlie the monthly payroll figure are reported directly by companies through an electronic system that is subject to strict access limitations. The commissioner, who is the agency’s only political appointee, does not have access to the numbers until they have been made final.
“There’s not like one person in a room who can manipulate things,” said Aaron Sojourner, an economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. “There are safeguards in place.”