Iranians worry over American military buildup as last-chance round of talks nears

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — As the United States assembles its greatest military firepower in decades in the Middle East, Iranians are warily awaiting the next round of talks with the U.S. in Geneva this week — negotiations that many see as a last chance for their ruling theocracy to strike a deal with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Some say the situation feels hopeless. Battered by decades of sanctions, heightened by Trump's 2018 decision to withdraw from Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers, Iranians also just suffered through the bloodiest crackdown on dissent in the country's modern history.

Still, Iran heads into the Thursday talks ''with a determination to achieve a fair and equitable deal — in the shortest possible time,'' Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted Tuesday on X.

As Iranians await the outcome of the Geneva negotiations, many fear the outbreak of a war that could surpass Iran's bloody 1980s conflict with Iraq.

That conflict sparked a patriotic response from Iranian volunteers. But now the prospects of a war with the U.S. have riven a population that includes hard-line supporters of the theocracy and those who feel Iran is splitting at the seams, especially after it is still reeling from a devastating 12-day war with Israel in June and thousands of people killed and arrested during last month's protests.

Trump said at least 32,000 people were killed in the protests, which is at the further end of estimates over the death toll. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activist News Agency has so far counted more than 7,000 dead and believes the death toll is far higher. Iran's government offered its only death toll on Jan. 21, saying 3,117 people were killed.

''Every morning when I get up, my brain is full of chaos,'' said Sepideh Bafarani, a 29-year-old woman who works in a women's clothing store. ''It's a possible war ... and an ongoing bad economic situation.''

''I predict that if both sides really mean what they are saying, a war will start," he said.

Trump's ‘armada' is getting closer

For weeks, Trump has talked about an ''armada'' now largely in place off the coast of Iran, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. He has also sent the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, from the Caribbean toward the Mideast.

Overall, at least 16 U.S. Navy ships will be assembled, according to a U.S. Navy official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to detail sensitive military movements.

That's comparable to Operation Desert Fox in 1998, when American and British forces bombed Iraq for four days over Saddam Hussein 's refusal to comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions about weapons inspections. There are hundreds of fighter jets and other support aircraft in the region necessary for launching a major attack on Iran.

Meanwhile, the CIA published instructions in Farsi online on how Iranians can securely contact the spy agency.

Iranians have been watching the buildup with growing concern, some by surreptitiously getting around internet restrictions or watching satellite news channels. Iranian state television has continued showing the country's military running drills and its leaders threatening massive retaliation against any American assault.

Iranian state TV on Tuesday said the country's Revolutionary Guard held a drill that included launching missiles, flying drones and firing guns at targets along its coast, without elaborating on the exact time or place of the exercise.

''It's not an equal situation," a passerby told The Associated Press on Tuesday in Tehran, declining to give his name for fear of reprisals. "One side has entered the talks with a lot of power, it has lot of equipment. On the other hand, Iran is in a weak position. They want total surrender, but I think that's not viable.''

Steve Witkoff, the billionaire friend of Trump serving as his special Mideast envoy, has said the president didn't understand why Iran ''hadn't capitulated'' given the forces arrayed against it in the region and beyond in Europe. Iranian Foreign Minister spokesperson Esmail Baghaei dismissed Witkoff's comments on Monday, saying ''the word ‘capitulation' does not exist in the Iranians' dictionary.''

The Geneva talks, he said, are ''a historic opportunity to strike an unprecedented agreement that addresses mutual concerns and achieves mutual interests. A deal is within reach, but only if diplomacy is given priority.''

Iran, he added, would ''stop at nothing to guard our sovereignty with courage.''

It remains unclear just what Iran could offer Trump. Tehran has insisted it wants to continue enriching uranium, something Trump has repeatedly said must stop. It also has refused to discuss its ballistic missile arsenal or its support of regional proxy forces, another Trump demand.

‘Everybody is worried'

It remains difficult to speak to people in Iran; internet and telephone lines remain disrupted following last month's nationwide protests. On the streets of Tehran, many people are suspicious of talking to journalists, assuming reporters work for the government. Iran's theocracy controls all radio and TV stations in the country.

''I remember many bad situations, but even during Iran-Iraq war in 1980s it was not like this," said Hassan Mirzaei, a 68-year-old taxi driver. ''I am in shock without any hope — especially when there is word about war.''

He added: ''I have two orphaned grandchildren, and I need to work to feed.''

The man in Tehran who spoke of an unequal nature of the talks said: ''We once fought Iraq for eight years, but it was a country at the same level with us. Going to war with America, Israel and NATO will have very horrible and unpredictable consequences."

''What can we do,'' he added. "We can't leave our country.''

Ami Mianji, a 33-year-old who runs an auto repair shop, described Iranians as a brave people who aren't afraid of war.

A student who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals said, ''Iran is refusing to back down from its positions for sure, because if it does, it would have officially given up its 40-year-old ideology."

''I have no hope,'' he added. "The leaders of both countries speak often, and none of them is willing to concede to reach a deal. So the likelihood for war is high.''

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