Every storm is different; every scenario uniquely, frustratingly complex. In the '70s there was one weather model (LFM). Today there are scores of simulations. We are drowning in a sea of competing data.
The challenge is what to believe — when. No one model has a lock on the truth; they all have strengths and weaknesses.
Over the past 40 years, I've noticed it's better to over-predict than under-predict snow. If you say 8 inches and you wind up with 5, most people shrug. "Close enough for a weatherman." But God help you if you predict 2 inches and a foot falls. There is no forgiveness for that sin. As a result, meteorologists inflate snowfall forecasts. I know, shocking! Today, with apps and thousands of websites, EVERYONE is an armchair meteorologist.
A lingering lobe of "vorticity" aloft squeezes out another 1-2 inches today but travel conditions slowly improve. Temperatures run close to average as we kick off 2016. "Plowable, shovelable" snow without the subzero polar sting? Sounds pretty good to me.