Inside the Numbers: How Indiana and Miami stack up going into CFP national championship game

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza originally planned on going to Yale, which pulled out all the stops during his recruiting visit five years ago.

Among the ploys the Bulldogs used that day: a nod to their history, including how Larry Kelly and Clint Frank won the Heisman Trophy for Yale in 1936 and 1937, respectively. Mendoza won the Heisman this season.

Mendoza and Yale's history are now colliding again.

Yale is the only major college football team to finish a season 16-0, pulling that off in 1894. Indiana can do the same if it wins the College Football Playoff national championship on Jan. 19 against Miami — Mendoza's hometown team.

Other teams have gone 16-0, albeit not at the highest level of college football.

North Dakota State did it on the way to the FCS national championship in 2019, and Ferris State did it this season to win the Division II national title. Montana State had a shot at 16-0 last season at the FCS level — but lost the national championship game to North Dakota State.

Inside the numbers

1 and 3 — The number of fumbles lost by these teams; one for Indiana, three for Miami. Indiana is one of only two teams with one lost fumble this season (UConn is the other) and the Hurricanes are tied for seventh best nationally.

237 and 236 — An odd coincidence. Indiana has outscored teams by 237 points in the first half of games this season (second best nationally behind Texas Tech's 256). The Hoosiers have outscored teams by 236 points in the second half; that's No. 1 nationally.

47 and 45 — Miami leads the nation with 47 quarterback sacks this season. Indiana is tied with Oklahoma for second with 45.

25 — Miami has averaged 33:42 of time of possession this season. Indiana is a mere 25 seconds less, 33:17. Both teams rank in the top six nationally.

8 would be enough

The Hurricanes have beaten seven ranked teams this season (rankings at time of game): No. 6 Notre Dame 27-24, No. 18 South Florida 49-12, No. 18 Florida State 28-22, No. 24 Pitt 38-7, No. 7 Texas A&M 10-3, No. 3 Ohio State 24-14 and No. 6 Mississippi 31-27.

Indiana enters the title game ranked No. 1.

Thanks to the advent of a playoff, the season is longer now than what the norm was in college football for decades, so there are more opportunities to play games — and at this time of year, games against ranked teams.

But only three teams have finished with at least eight wins in a season over AP-ranked teams: Alabama went 9-1 in 2016, Alabama went 8-1 in 2015 and LSU went 8-1 in 2011.

Miami could be the third team to beat six top-10 teams in a season: LSU went 7-0 against teams ranked 10th or higher in 2019 and Ohio State went 6-1 in such games last season.

More on Mendoza

Fernando Mendoza has played 15 games at Indiana. He already is up to sixth on the Hoosiers' career passing touchdown list.

Mendoza has thrown for 41 TDs this season, one behind Antwaan Randle El and Peyton Ramsey — tied for fourth with 42 in their years as Hoosiers. Ben Chappell is third with 45, Kellen Lewis second with 48 and Nate Sudfeld the all-time Indiana leader with 61.

The most by any Indiana quarterback in a single season, before now, was 29 by Kurtis Rourke last year.

Among the Indiana quarterbacks with more than 300 passing attempts, Mendoza is the all-time leader in completion percentage at 73.0%. He'd have to misfire on his first 19 passes against Miami to see that percentage fall below Rourke's 69.4% clip.

Miami's Malachi Toney is one catch away from being the first Hurricanes receiver to reach 100 grabs in a season. The previous school single-season mark was 85 by Xavier Restrepo in 2023.

A reminder: Toney was 17 when this season started and should be in his senior year of high school.

Toney is fourth nationally in catches this season, behind California's Jacob De Jesus (108), Florida Atlantic's Easton Messer (104) and UConn's Skyler Bell (101).

Reaching the top

The winner of the Indiana-Miami game likely will finish the season No. 1 in the final AP Top 25.

Miami has been No. 1 in 68 different AP polls but hasn't been there since the final poll of the 2002 regular season.

It's likely no surprise that there is a major discrepancy in the history of the two programs, including:

— Miami has been ranked 551 times to Indiana's 95.

— Miami has been in the top 5 on 213 occasions to Indiana's 18.

— The Hoosiers' current run of 28 consecutive poll appearances is, by far, the longest in Indiana history; there was an 11-poll run overlapping the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Miami's current run of 33 consecutive poll appearances is the third-longest stretch for the Hurricanes, behind streaks of 162 polls in a row (1985 through 1995) and 107 straight (1999 through 2006).

Miami was 10th in the AP preseason poll, while Indiana was ranked No. 20 to start the season.

It's been more than a decade since a team started 10th or lower and won the national title. Florida State was 11th to open the 2013 season and Auburn was 22nd to open the 2010 season.

For the 20th time in the last 21 seasons, the preseason No. 1 won't win the national title. Alabama did it in 2017, the only exception in that span.

Miami has come from relatively far back in the pack to win national championships before. The Hurricanes weren't ranked until the fifth poll of the 1983 season (it was a top 20 then) and were 10th to start the 1987 season.

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