Heavy Southern Minnesota Rainfall

Very heavy rain led to flooding across portions of the Minnesota River Valley Saturday Night into Sunday. Overall, 8.50" was reported in St. Peter, with 5.58" at the Mankato airport. Several roads were reported underwater, including some US 169 ramps near Mankato.

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Tornado Reports From Saturday

There were a couple of fairly quick tornado touchdowns Saturday Night to the north of Gaylord. Besides the heavy rain that fell across southern Minnesota, these were the only severe weather reports across the state from the afternoon and evening hours.

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Mostly Quiet Week Ahead

Ah, don't you love when it is just a bit quieter weather-wise across the region with no big storms and no big heat? That's what this week is going to be like for the most part in the Twin Cities as highs hang in the low to mid-80s each day. The only chance of storms appears to be Friday, otherwise, mainly sunny skies are expected each day.

It definitely won't be as sticky-feeling as the weekend was either as dewpoints will be a lot more tolerable this week. They'll be in the upper 50s to low 60s each day.

We could see some stronger wind gusts Monday, however, out of the west-northwest as we head through the afternoon hours.

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Why Is Predicting Flash Floods So Hard?
By Paul Douglas

 
Over 8 inches of rain fell near Mankato from Saturday night's nearly stationary line of storms. That's over 2 month's of rain in less than 8 hours. Amazing. Why didn't anyone predict this?

Flash floods are notoriously fickle, with only a couple hours of lead-time, at best. Even high-resolution models can't yet discern where storms may stall for an extended period of time.

Keep in mind, the average lead-time for tornadoes is 13 minutes. Hurricane tracks can be accurately predicted days in advance, in fact NOAA data suggests the uncertainty in a hurricane's track has decreased 40 percent since "Katrina" struck in 2005. Yes, we have more work to do.

BREAKING NEWS: no 90s here for the next 10 days or so. While the western US sizzles, a Canadian breeze drops our dew points into the 50s (very comfortable) and I don't see any blobs on Doppler into at least Saturday.

Throw in daytime highs in the 80s and you have a sensational, sun-kissed week of weather, arguably one of the best of summer. You're welcome.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny and breezy. Wake up 63. High 82. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Just about perfect. Wake up 61. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, too nice to work (much). Wake up 62. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
THURSDAY: Sunshine lingers, no complaints. Wake up 62. High 81. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Ditto. Still amazingly nice. Wake up 59. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Storm risk far north. Wake up 62. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 7-12 mph.
SUNDAY: Sunny start, risk of a PM T-shower. Wake up 63. High 85. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
July 27th

1910: Giant hailstones fall in Todd and Wadena Counties. One stone weighed in at 5 pounds

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
July 27th

Average High: 83F (Record: 104F set in 1931)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 49F set in 1971)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 6.35" set in 1892)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 27th

Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 8:44 PM

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 51 minutes and 18 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 13 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 14.5 Hours Of Daylight? August 5th (14 hours, 29 minutes, and 39 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6 AM?: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 7th (8:30 PM)

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Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook

A mainly sunny day is expected Monday in the Twin Cities with just a few passing clouds at times. Morning temperatures will start off the low to mid-60s with highs climbing into the low 80s. Winds out of the west-northwest will be on the increase into the afternoon hours, with PM sustained winds of 10-15 mph with 20-25 mph gusts possible.

As we look statewide only a few clouds can be expected during the day, otherwise, mainly sunny skies are expected. Highs will range from the mid-70s to the low 80s across Minnesota.

Highs across much of the state Monday will be slightly below average. The only spot above average? Up toward Grand Marais. The average high in the Twin Cities for July 27th is 83F.

As mentioned above, fairly quiet weather is expected this week with highs in the low to mid-80s - right around average for the last week of July.

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National Weather Forecast

On Monday, a frontal boundary from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes will help spark off showers and thunderstorms. We will also be watching heavy rain still possible in portions of southern Texas - some of which are connected to Hanna over northern Mexico.

Through Tuesday evening there will be a few areas of heavier rain in the lower 48. The first will be in southern Texas, connected to Hanna. Heavy rain will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast over the next few days with some areas potentially picking up 1-2" of rain a day. We could also see a few inches of rain fall from the Front Range into the Central Plains.

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Northeast And Northwest Heat Concerns

In the Northeast, heat will be a concern in some areas Monday as heat index values approach 100F in New York City and Boston.

Meanwhile, highs will be right around 100F on Monday out in Portland, OR, a value they hit about once a year on average.

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Tropical Update

After making landfall Saturday in southern Texas, Hanna continued to weaken across portions of Mexico on Sunday. It is expected that this system will dissipate Monday due to the rugged terrain of Mexico, but it could still bring heavy rain to portions of southern Texas and northern Mexico through that time.

Meanwhile, we have our eye on another tropical wave out in the Atlantic that has a HIGH chance of becoming our next named system as we head through the last week of July. It will continue westward through the middle of the week, approaching the Lesser Antilles. Once it does so, a number of models have this system passing near the Greater Antilles. While it is too early to know if there will be impacts in the U.S. from this storm, it is one to keep an eye on over the next several days.

Out in the Central Pacific, Hurricane Douglas continues to approach Hawaii, impacting the state as we head through Sunday Night and Monday Morning local time with heavy rain and destructive winds.

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The curtain is about to come down on Comet NEOWISE

More from Live Science: "Since rounding the sun, the comet has slowly been getting higher in the northwest evening sky and its position relative to the Big Dipper has made it fairly easy to find. But now, an object that has been all but absent from the evening sky since NEOWISE rounded the sun, is now back in view and will pose an increasing hindrance to comet watchers with each passing night. That object is the moon. This weekend it will be a widening crescent and its light will not pose too much of a nuisance, but on Monday (July 27) it will reach its first quarter ("half") phase, and in the nights thereafter it will be a waxing gibbous, and flooding the late night and early morning sky with its light during the coming week. And now that the comet is now moving away from both the sun and the Earth, it will continue to fade though at a more rapid pace."

25 Years After Returning, Yellowstone’s Wolves Are the Most Studied but Misunderstood Good Boys

More from Earther: "Twenty-five years ago, wildlife managers in Yellowstone National Park undertook one of the most consequential actions in modern American conservation when they unleashed 14 wolves into the park. The program to reintroduce wolves to Yellowstone in 1995 has since seen wolf packs fan out across one of the largest intact ecosystems in the Lower 48. Reintroducing an apex predator that humans wiped out earlier in the century has had consequences both intended and unintended. It was—and continues to be—wildly controversial but also 100% right. Ecosystems have flourished under a newly found balance; tourists have come to catch a glimpse of animals no longer found in many other states; and scientists have had a chance to observe an unprecedented experiment in rewilding."

Climate change brings Japan more deadly downpours

More from the Nikkei Asian Review: "The risk of deadly downpours has risen Japan in recent years due to global warming, adding to people's worries this summer, on top of the new coronavirus pandemic. Heavy rains, floods and landslides this month have destroyed more than 1,000 residential buildings, killing at least 78 people across Japan, mostly in the country's southwestern Kumamoto Prefecture. For the 24 hours through the morning of July 4, the city of Ashikita in northern Kumamoto was hit by torrential rain said to "occur once in 50 or 100 years," according to the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, or NIED. Some cities in the region got more than a month's worth of precipitation overnight."

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Thanks for checking in. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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