Has the market hit bottom?

Has the Twin Cities housing market hit bottom?

Aaron Dickinson made the declaration on his blog this morning. Here's an excerpt: "The last six months have shown a dramatic turn in many fundamentals – far faster than many, including me, expected. While statistics are great, actual experiences of those on the street are still quite helpful in "taking the temperature" of the real estate market. As many of the housing statistics were showing improvement, that data was supported by the experiences I've had and the stories I have heard from many other agents in our market."

Some economists aren't as optimistic, and we'll never really know when the market has hit bottom until it's already happened. Even the two largest Realtors' associations avoided making such a prediction at its annual year-end press conference last week, saying only that "the outlook is positive."

Dickinson, who has a deep understanding of the association's data, makes the case using several kinds of data that rising sales and falling inventory will put an end to the broad price free fall we've seen overall the past several years. For example, last year inventory was down almost 30 percent while sales increased 8.2 percent, according to data from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors. While he doesn't expect any across-the-board price increases, he astutely notes that some segments of the market are healthier than others and could even see some price gains. Other micro-markets will continue to see declines.