Wednesday's 53-51 loss at Nebraska was a huge blow to the Gophers basketball team, sending its RPI ranking falling from 15th to 20th.
They still have the second-toughest strength of schedule rating this year, trailing only Duke, and that ranking will be an important factor when it comes to getting an NCAA tournament bid. And luckily, they still hold their own destiny for the Big Ten tournament and their finish in the conference. Defeat Purdue in West Lafayette, Ind., on Saturday and they finish sixth; lose and it gets much more complicated.
It's hard to believe the Gophers can play so well against Indiana and Penn State and then go to Nebraska, a team they crushed by 19 points at Williams Arena on Jan. 29 and had won only four previous conference games, and play one of their worst games of the season.
With the loss to the Cornhuskers, the Gophers are in a precarious position heading into the final game of the regular season. The Gophers, Iowa and Illinois are all tied for sixth place in the Big Ten at 8-9; Purdue is 7-10 and one game behind those three teams.
Because the Gophers and Boilermakers only face each other once this season, that means if the Gophers lose on Saturday, they will fall behind them in the Big Ten standings.
The Hawkeyes face Nebraska at home on Saturday. The Cornhuskers have only one road victory in conference play this season, a 68-64 victory at bottom-feeder Penn State in January.
If the Gophers defeat Purdue, they will be fine. With Illinois playing at Ohio State on Sunday, there's a good chance the Illini will lose and fall to 8-10. So if the Gophers and Iowa both win, they will tie for sixth at 9-9 and the Gophers hold that tiebreaker.
But if the Gophers lose to Purdue, Illinois loses at Ohio State, and Iowa defeats Nebraska, the Gophers would tumble to the No. 8 seed for the conference tournament in Chicago next week. In that scenario, they would face Purdue in the first round.