Grammy predictions: Billie Eilish and Taylor Swift once again

Critic's best bets for Grammy winners.

March 12, 2021 at 3:33PM
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Taylor Swift (Krista Schlueter, New York Times/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

There won't be a Grammy sweep of the Big Four categories like Billie Eilish pulled off last year. But if these predictions are accurate, you'll see Eilish and Taylor Swift grabbing trophies.

Album of the year: Jhené Aiko, "Chilombo"; Black Pumas, "Black Pumas (Deluxe)"; Coldplay, "Everyday Life"; Jacob Collier, "Djesse Vol. 3"; Haim, "Women in Music Pt. III"; Dua Lipa, "Future Nostalgia"; Post Malone, "Hollywood's Bleeding"; Swift, "Folklore."

There are left-field choices (Collier, Black Pumas) and bright spots (the poppy, harmonizing Haim, the nouveau disco Lipa). But nothing says 2020 like "Folklore," Swift's unexpected, pandemic journey into non-autobiographical indie-folk delivered with grace, emotion and nuance. She will become the first woman to claim album of the year for a third time, following "Fearless" and "1989."

Record of the year: Beyoncé, "Black Parade"; Black Pumas, "Colors"; Da Baby featuring Roddy Ricch, "Rockstar"; Doja Cat, "Say So"; Eilish, "Everything I Wanted"; Lipa, "Don't Start Now"; Post Malone, "Circles"; Megan Thee Stallion featuring Beyoncé, "Savage."

It comes down to two songs perfect for the past year — the topical "Black Parade" about Black history, pride and racial reckoning set to an array of Black musical styles, and "Everything I Wanted," a haunting, down-tempo meditation on mental health and finding support. Beyoncé deserves it, but Eilish's momentum will continue.

Song of the year: "Black Parade"; "The Box" (Ricch); "Cardigan" (Swift); "Circles"; "Don't Start Now"; "Everything I Wanted"; "I Can't Breathe" (H.E.R.); "If the World Was Ending" (JP Saxe).

For a change, this winner might differ from the record of the year. "I Can't Breathe" is penetratingly timely, though "Black Parade" is equally relevant. "Everything I Wanted" is a triumph but I think Taylor's "Cardigan" is the one-size-fits-all victor here.

Best new artist: Ingrid Andress; Phoebe Bridgers; Chika; Noah Cyrus; D Smoke; Doja Cat; Kaytranada; Megan Thee Stallion.

Miley's little sis Noah may be the only nominee who won't challenge your autocorrect, but Megan Thee Stallion is the runaway winner. The mighty Houston phenom is a terrific rapper with irresistible attitude, even if her often sexually explicit raps can't be printed in this newspaper. That didn't stop her from landing two of 2020's biggest hits with the Cardi B collab "WAP" and her own "Savage."

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FILE - In this Oct. 5, 2019 photo, Billie Eilish performs during the first weekend of the Austin City Limits Music Festival in Zilker Park in Austin, Texas. Eilish will perform at this month's Grammy Awards. (Photo by Jack Plunkett/Invision/AP, File) (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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"Folklore" by Taylor Swfit (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Megan Thee Stallion performs onstage during Day 2 of "Red Rocks Unpaused" 3-Day Music Festival presented by Visible at Red Rocks Amphitheatre on September 02, 2020 in Morrison, CO. (Rich Fury/Getty Images for Visible/TNS) ORG XMIT: 3970485W (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Jon Bream

Critic / Reporter

Jon Bream has been a music critic at the Star Tribune since 1975, making him the longest tenured pop critic at a U.S. daily newspaper. He has attended more than 8,000 concerts and written four books (on Prince, Led Zeppelin, Neil Diamond and Bob Dylan). Thus far, he has ignored readers’ suggestions that he take a music-appreciation class.

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