"Paul, why does the weather forecast keep changing?" That's the right question to be asking. Meteorologists refine forecasts over time, reacting to new data and the latest weather models. The closer you get to a weather event, the more accurate the forecast should be. In theory.

Weather is a metaphor for science: peeling away at an infinite onion. We zig and zag toward relative truth. The process is self-correcting and never perfect. But forecasts are far more reliable than they were even a generation ago.

Case in point: the late January cold wave we've been talking about since last week. Latest models aren't as bitter after Jan. 16, with highs in single digits and teens, a few subzero nights. Let's see if it's a fluke or a trend, but there is now little doubt a reality check is looming.

Unusually light winds keep us socked in with low clouds and fog into Saturday, but I see two to three days above 32 degrees next week.

I'm OK with fog. With everything else going on, I'm relieved Old Man Winter is cutting us a break.