Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke comes to Minnesota on Thursday with the U.S. economy teetering on the brink of another recession and investors and policymakers around the world hanging on his every word.
Score one for the Economic Club of Minnesota, the relatively unknown organization that managed to land the world's most powerful central banker as the guest speaker for its September luncheon.
The commitment to show up in Minnesota in September came almost a year ago, when most people thought the economy was getting stronger. Even so, the three-year-old Economic Club knew there'd be high interest in Bernanke's appearance.
With the economy having weakened noticeably in recent months, the pressure on Bernanke, President Obama and Congress to do something has intensified. Coincidentally enough, Bernanke's speech will be followed hours later by President Obama's televised address to Congress, which will focus on jobs.
The two speeches will be a study in contrasts.
Obama will propose much that is likely to get bogged down in politics and accomplish little.
Bernanke, meanwhile, will leave us guessing. Will the Fed resume its purchases of short-term Treasuries, an action credited with boosting the stock market and the fortunes of U.S. exporters? Or will it swap some of the short-term notes on its books for longer-term ones, thus bringing down the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers alike? Or does Friday's dismal jobs report require the Fed to take even more aggressive actions?
Additionally, Bernanke has his own politics to worry about. The minutes (www.startribune.com/a645) of the August meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee revealed deep divisions about what, if anything, Fed policymakers should do in response to surprisingly tepid economic data. Ultimately, three Federal Reserve Bank presidents disagreed with the committee's decision to keep interest rates near zero until the middle of 2013. One of those dissenters was Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.