Saturday Weather Outlook
Ready for potentially the first 90F of 2021? It could happen as we head into Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds expected in the metro. Morning temperatures start off around 70F before climbing to around 90F for the high. Over the past 30 years, our average first 90F has occurred on May 30th. Last year it was June 1st.
Warmer than average weather is expected across the entire state on Saturday, with highs generally between 10-20F degrees above average. We'll have to watch some rain chances - mainly across northern Minnesota.
A few of the storms Saturday/Saturday Night across western and northern Minnesota could be on the strong side, with large hail and damaging winds the main threat.
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Sunday Weather Outlook
We will continue to watch shower and storm chances on Sunday statewide, with cooler temperatures in place due to a cold front. We'll only make it up to around 80F in the Twin Cities, but highs will be stuck around 50F along the North Shore due to an easterly breeze off of Lake Superior.
Once again a few of the storms statewide could be on the strong side Sunday with a Marginal Risk in place.
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Warm Through Tuesday
We will continue to see warmer than average highs through Tuesday in the Twin Cities as highs climb back into the low 80s Monday and Tuesday. Behind a cold front that moves through during the middle of the week, highs will fall back to around 70F Wednesday, and some models even show the potential of 60s for the end of the next week.
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Still Below Average Precipitation For May
Even with the rain the past few days, we are pretty much below average for the month of May (through Thursday) across the state, with areas from Rochester to the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Duluth, and International Falls at least an inch below average.
In the latest Drought Monitor update released Thursday, we did see a small increase in Moderate Drought, particularly across southern Minnesota, with abnormally dry conditions now into the Twin Cities.
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The Evolution of Tornado Safety Tips
By Paul Douglas
A vehicle is a good place to be during an electrical storm, but a tornado? Not so much.
Tornado safety has evolved over time. Growing experts told us the southwest corner of our basements offered the most protection. After studies showed debris piling up in the southwest corner, guidelines were revised: seek shelter under the basement stairs. In 1960: "Open up your windows to relieve air pressure. 2021: nope. It doesn't make that much of a difference. Don't risk being hurt by flying glass. Interior closets and bathrooms offer protection, as does a sturdy bathtub.
Enjoy today's simmering heat with upper 80s to near 90. The approach of a weak frontal boundary sparks another round of T-storms late Saturday night into Monday, followed by a push of cooler, cleaner, lower-humidity air by midweek.
Storms are attracted to major holidays and models hint at rain late next week, but clearing over the weekend.
A drought is raging out west, but we just enjoyed a million dollar rain. Happy to see so much green!
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
SATURDAY: Sunny, warm and sticky. Wake up 67. High 88. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
SUNDAY: Muggy with a few T-storms. Wake up 69. High 80. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.
MONDAY: Unsettled, scattered heavy T-storms. Wake up 67. High 80. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: More sunshine, isolated T-storm. Wake up 64. High 84. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, breezy and less humid. Wake up 63. High 79. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
THURSDAY: Showers and T-storms return. Wake up 58. High 68. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind E 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Cool with periods of rain. Wake up 53. High 65. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind E 10-20 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
May 22nd
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 6 minutes and 41 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~1 minutes and 57 seconds
*When Do We Climb To 15.5 Hours Of Daylight? June 7th (15 hours, 30 minutes, and 16 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 5:30 AM?: May 30th (5:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 9 PM?: June 12th (9:00 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
May 22nd
2011: A strong EF-1 tornado with wind speeds up to 110 mph strikes north Minneapolis, causing extensive tree and structural damage. The tornado touched down in St. Louis Park and moved through north Minneapolis, lasting 14.25 miles before dissipating in Blaine after causing minor damage to the Anoka County Airport. The tornado reached a peak width of 1/2 mile.
2001: Record cold high temperatures are set in over 30 cities in Minnesota, including a chilly 47 in the Twin Cities and 39 at Grand Rapids and Pine River. Half of an inch of snow falls at International Falls.
1925: Temperatures take a nosedive from 100 to 32 degrees in 36 hours at New Ulm and Tracy.
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National Weather Forecast
We continue to watch the chance of rain and snow out west as we head into Saturday, with showers and storms draped across the central U.S. into the Northeast. An area of high pressure in the Southeast will keep them dry - and by early next week could bring 100-degree highs to portions of the region.
Several inches of snow could accumulate out in the western mountains through the weekend. Meanwhile, the heaviest rain will fall along the Gulf Coast, where another 1-3" of rain will be possible.
Meanwhile, while the Atlantic tropical season doesn't technically begin until June 1st, the National Hurricane Center is tracking the potential for development. Here's the latest as of 1 PM CT Friday:
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low
pressure area centered about 300 miles northeast of Bermuda have
diminished somewhat over the past several hours, and the system has
not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However,
the low is producing gale-force winds, and any increase in
organization would result in advisories being initiated on the
system later today or tonight as it moves westward to
west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently,
the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile
environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on
this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a
tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has
winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase
in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived
tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the
northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone
advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions
of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday.
Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding
along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead
to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this
region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding
potential can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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'Clyde's Spot' on Jupiter Is Starting to Look Pretty Weird
More from Gizmodo: "Last May, a spot suddenly appeared in Jupiter's southern hemisphere. But as new images from the Juno spacecraft show, the once circular feature has morphed into an enigmatic splotch. The feature was first detected by Clyde Foster, director of the Shallow Sky section of the Astronomical Society of Southern Africa, on May 31, 2020. Foster spotted the spot using his own 14-inch telescope, and, quite fortuitously, NASA's Juno probe made a close approach two days later, allowing for a close-up view of the new feature. Clyde's Spot, as it's informally known, is a convective outbreak—a plume of cloud that's reaching out beyond the regular cloud tops—and is located to the southeast of Jupiter's Great Red Spot. Such outbreaks are not uncommon within the gas giant's South Temperate Belt."
Documents reveal natural gas chaos in Texas blackouts
More from E&E News: "Texas' electricity leaders were deeply focused on natural gas shortages days before blackouts crippled the state in February and plunged the state's power industry into chaos, according to documents obtained by E&E News. A phone log shows more than 100 calls to or from DeAnn Walker, then-chair of the Public Utility Commission of Texas, discussing gas curtailments. It begins Feb. 10 — well before massive power outages started on Feb. 15 — and runs through Feb. 19. Walker spoke to everyone from the chief of staff of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to power company officials. During the cold blast, Abbott promoted fossil fuels and blamed renewable energy before walking back some of that criticism."
Analysis: China's carbon emissions grow at fastest rate for more than a decade
More from CarbonBrief: "China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have grown at their fastest pace in more than a decade, increasing by 15% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, new analysis for Carbon Brief shows. The post-pandemic surge means China's emissions reached a new record high of nearly 12bn tonnes (GtCO2) in the year ending March 2021. This is some 600m tonnes (5%) above the total for 2019. The analysis is based on official figures for the domestic production, import and export of fossil fuels and cement, as well as commercial data on changes in stocks of stored fuel."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser