Tracking Isaias
 
Hurricane Isaias became our 2nd hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thursday night as it approached the southern Bahamas. Isaias is also our ninth named storm of the season and it is also the earliest that we've ever had nine named storms. The previous record was Irene on August 7th back in 2005.
 
 

Tracking Isaias

According to NOAA's NHC, Isaias should remain at hurricane status through much of the weekend as it moves through the Bahamas and scrapes the east coast of Florida. The red colors below indicate hurricane warnings, which includes parts of Florida as well! By early next week, Isaias could be a Tropical Storm, potentially making landfall near South Carolina. Here are some Key Messages from NOAA's NHC regarding Hurricane Isaias:

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of the northwest Bahamas tonight.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast on Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia early next week.

5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the United States East Coast from northeast Florida to South Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued tonight and Sunday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts early next week.


Peak Storm Surge

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

 

 
Heavy Rainfall Potential
 
Hurricane Isaias will bring heavy rainfall from the Bahamas to parts of the Eastern US. As much as 6" to 12" of rain could be possible across the Bahamas, while 4" to 6" of rain could be possible from eastern Florida to the Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic States.
 
 


Sunday Weather Outlook for MSP

Weather conditions on Sunday will be quite a bit cooler than it has been over the last several weeks. temps will warm through the 60s in the morning and top out in the low 70s by the afternoon. There could also be a stray shower through the early afternoon, but many locations will stay dry.


Sunday Meteograms for Minneapolis

Here are a few meteograms for Minneapolis on Sunday. Note that temps and dewpoints will be quite a bit cooler than it has been over the last several days and weeks! With highs only topping out in the low 70s, it'll be more reminiscent of mid September! Winds will be a bit breezy as well, gusting as times to nearly 20mph out of the NNE.


High Temps on Sunday

High temps on Sunday wll be quite a bit cooler than average for early August with temps only warming into the low/mid 70s across the state. Note that a few locations in far eastern MN and into Wisconsin may only warm into the 60s! Again, most locations will be nearly -10F to -15F below average and more like Mid-September.


 
General Thunderstorm Risk Sunday
 
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a lingering general thunderstorm risk across the southeastern part of the state and into Wisconsin. The best chance of lingering showers or storms in the metro would be through about midday or early afternoon before things gradually clear out and quiet down.
 

 
Somewhat Soggy PM Saturday and AM Sunday
 
A cool front sweeping through the region PM Saturday into the first half of the day Sunday will be responsible for a few pockets of heavier rainfall potential, but it won't be very widespread. Most of the rain will be exiting the region during the PM hours of Sunday with cooler, drier and sunnier weather on the way for the first full week of August.
 

 
Weather Outlook From AM Sunday to AM Tuesday
 
There could be a few lingering showers on Sunday as our weak storm system shifts south, but weather conditions look to improve as we head throughout the day and into early next week. A bubble of high pressure from Canada will settle in through the first half of next week with sunny skies and weather conditions more typical of mid September!
 

 
Drought Update
 
The lastest update from the Drought Monitor shows a nice reduction in drought conditions across parts of the state. Thanks to recent rains over the last 7 to 14 days, we've seen an improvement in drought conditions! Good news, Moderate Drought dropped from 17% last week to only 8% this week. With that said, some locations around the state are still nearly -2" to -5" below average precipitation since January 1st.

 
Extended Forecast
 
Temps and dewpoint values through the first half off the week will be very reminiscent of September as high temps hover in the low to mid 70s. Interestingly, some of the overnight lows this week could drop into the 40s across parts of the state! Temps and humidity values slowly creep back above average levels by the weekend. Note that Saturday next weekend could be close to 90F again with chances of showers and storms moving back into the increase in heat and humidity.
 

Extended Temperature Outlook

Here's the extended temperature outlook through the first half of August. Note that after a cooler and almost early fall-like week ahead, temperatures look to return to summer-like levels with readings 80s and perhaps even 90s! 

 

Dogday Cicadas Beginning To Buzz in Neighborhoods Near You

If you've had a chance to poke your head outside for any length of time over the last few days, you may have heard some loud buzzing. If you're wondering what it is, you can thank your local cicadas. According to the University of Minnesota, cicadas are generally present from July to September and are often called "Dogday Cicadas" because they can generally be heard during the dogdays of summer, which officially run from July 22nd to August 22nd. An excerpt from Yesterday's Island suggests that cicadas are natures thermometer: "According to folk legend, when you hear the first song of the dog-day cicadas, it means there’s just six weeks until frost. While this may not be a precise predictor, there is some merit to the claim. Dog-day cicadas, as their name implies, appear during the long, hot summer days of late July and August."
 
 
(Image Below Courtesy: University of Minnesota Extension)

Earliest (Fall) 32F Minimum Temperature at MSP Airport

If you believe the dogday cicada folk legend, when you hear the first song of the dog-day cicadas, it means there’s just six weeks until frost... that would mean we could see our first frost by the beginning of September! Keep in mind that our average first frost is right around October 11th/12th in the metro. However, our earliest frost was on September 3rd, 1974, when we dropped to 32F at the MSP Aiport!! Our most recent September frost happened on September 24th, 2000, when we dropped to 31F. On the other hand, St. Cloud, MN typically sees their first frost at the end of September, nearly 2 weeks before the Twin Cities metro sees a frost.


 
100F Days at MSP
 
The last time we hit 100F was in Minneapolis on May 28th, 2018 (which was over the 2018 Memorial Day Weekend) and we haven't hit it since. Since 2000, the average first 100F day is on July 6th.
 

 
Extended Temperature Outlook
 
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook from August 8th - 14th, warmer than average temperatures will settle into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region once again. 
 
_______________________________________________________________________

All Things Considered, A Pretty Nice July
By Paul Douglas

I'm happy to report that Minnesota will be physically distanced from a sizzling U.S. heat wave for much of August. We'll see a few more waves of heat, but probably not as intense or long-lasting as July.

In the MSP metro, July was 2.2F warmer than average with 3.19 inches of rain; .85 inches below average for the month.

Dr. Mark Seeley reports, statewide, July was 14th warmest and 14th wettest since 1895. Portions of at least 15 counties picked up 8 inches or more.

August tends to be drier and a bit cooler than July, with a lower risk of severe storms.

Meanwhile "Isaias" is scraping the eastern coastline of Florida with high winds and heavy surf. Tropical storm conditions are possible as far north as Washington D.C.

Which helps put this week's cooler front into stark perspective. Today will be cool and dry, with daytime highs in the 70s through Thursday. No frost anytime soon, by the way.

In spite of minor hail damage, small tornadoes and a "mega-rain" July 25-26, it's been a quiet summer.

_____________________________________________

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Some sun. Breezy and cooler. Winds: N 10-20. High: 72.

SUDNAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, cool and quiet. Winds: NNE 5. Low: 57.

MONDAY: More sun. Very comfortable. Winds: NE 7-12. High: 71.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Postcard Perfect. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 56. High: 74.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase, but probably dry. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 58. High: 76.

THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, Stickier. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 61. High: 79.

FRIDAY: Sunny spurts. Feels like summer again. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 64. High: 83.

SATURDAY: Plenty of sun. Should be lake-worthy. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 67. High: 85.


This Day in Weather History
August 2nd

1831: Unseasonably cool air moves into Minnesota with light frost reported at Ft. Snelling.


Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 2nd

Average High: 83F (Record: 99F set in 1988)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 46F set in 1971)

Record Rainfall: 2.69" set in 2006
Record Snowfall: None


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 2nd

Sunrise: 6:00am
Sunset: 8:37pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 37 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 26 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~ 1 hour


Moon Phase for August 2nd at Midnight
0.4 Days Until Full "Sturgeon" Moon

Aug. 3: Full Sturgeon Moon 10:59 a.m. CDT  - This time of year, this large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water like Lake Champlain is most readily caught. A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon because the moon rises looking reddish through sultry haze. Other variations include the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon. 

See more from Space.com HERE:


What's in the Night Sky?

"On August 2 and 3, 2020, everyone around the world (except far-northern Arctic latitudes) will see a full-looking moon lighting up the nighttime from dusk until dawn. Watch the moon follow the planets Jupiter and Saturn westward across the sky throughout the night. In North America, we often call the August full moon the Sturgeon Moon, Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon. For the Northern Hemisphere, this August full moon ushers in the second of three full moons of the summer season. In the Southern Hemisphere, where it’s the opposite season, this is second of three winter full moons."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

(Image Credit: EarthSky.org)


 
National High Temps Sunday
 
High temperatures across much of the nation will be running above average with the exception of the Northcentral Region, where we'll be nearly -5F to -15F below average for a change. Meanwhile, folks in the Western US will still be dealing with extreme heat, especially in the Desert Southwest.
 

National Severe Threat Sunday

According to NOAA's SPC, there are a few areas across the nation that could see isolated severe weather concerns during the day Sunday. Note the Marginal Severe Risk along the Carolina Coast, this severe threat will be in association with Isaias as it nears the Mid-Atlantica States.


National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook through the weekend shows active weather along and east of the Mississippi River Valley, most notably, Hurricane Isaias moving along Florida's East Coast through the weekend and toward the Carolinas early next week. Heavy Rain, Strong Damaging Winds and a Storm Surge will be the primary concerns as Isais moves north.
 

 
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7 day precipiation outlook , areas of heavy rainfall will be possible along the East Coast as Isaias lifts north. Some locations could see 4" to 6"+ with flooding rains possible. Meanwhile, the Western US looks to remain mostly dry through the first full week of August.
 

Climate Stories

(Image Credit: NOAA Satellite)

Older Post

Hurricane Isaias; PM T-Showers For Minnesota

Newer Post

Free Air Conditioning To Begin The Week With Mainly Sunny Skies