Farmland prices will decline an average of 5 percent and cash rents will decline by 3.4 percent over the next year, according to the most recent survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of 10 states, including Minnesota.
Three out of four bankers in the survey expect those prices to drop for the first time in several years. Even though grain yields are expected to be at record levels in some states, depressed prices for corn, soybeans and other commodities will "continue to take the air out of the bubble in agriculture land prices," said Ernie Goss, economics professor at Creighton University's Heider College of Business.
The survey is part of an effort that tracks rural trends in agriculture and energy in the Rural Mainstreet Index.
It also reported that farm equipment purchases have slumped to their lowest levels since 2006, largely because declines in grain prices have shrunk the disposable income of farmers.
U.S. grain prices have been pushed down more than 30 percent over the last 12 months, according to the report, but not everyone will feel the full impact of that decline. Many growers pre-sold a portion of their 2014 crops last winter when prices were higher.
Even with the weaker agriculture conditions, the report indicated that rural main street businesses are continuing to add jobs at a healthy pace. Year-over-year job growth for the region was 1.3 percent, well above the historic average, the report said, although Goss expects that pace to slow down in the weeks ahead.
